Canada: Deficits continue in the Prairie Provinces

Canada: Deficits continue in the Prairie Provinces

19 July 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in March 2025 indicates that while exceptional deficits across Canada will diminish in many provinces, intense deficits will persist in portions of the Prairie Provinces. Surpluses are expected in central provinces and in portions of northern Nunavut. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in the following areas: 

  • British Columbia, in places south of Williston Lake and throughout the Northern Rockies region. These deficits continue east into northwestern Alberta, spreading throughout much of Mackenzie County. 

  • Northwest Territories, with the most intense anomalies surrounding Great Bear Lake and western portions of the province, west of Great Slave Lake. 

  • Central Saskatchewan, in regions between Wollaston Lake and Lake La Ronge. 

  • Nunavut, throughout the Kitikmeot and Kivalliq regions.

  • Labrador, in most central and eastern portions of Southampton Island. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

  • Northern and southern Manitoba, in areas surrounding Henry Lake and southwest of Lake Winnipeg. These surpluses continue into southern Nunavut, in southwestern areas of the Kivalliq Region. Similar surpluses are expected in pockets across Baffin Island. 

  • Northwestern Ontario, near Big Trout Lake. 

  • Northwestern coastal regions of Quebec, in areas surrounding the village of Umiujaq. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through September 2024 indicates that exceptional deficits will continue in northeastern British Columbia, northwestern Alberta, central to northern Saskatchewan, and much of Northwestern Territories. Similar deficits are expected to arise in Nunavut, throughout the Kitikmeot and Kivalliq regions, and in central Newfoundland and Labrador. Severe to extreme surpluses are expected to linger in southern Saskatchewan, as well as continue throughout Baffin Island. 

From October through December 2024, exceptional deficits are expected to persist in northwestern Alberta, northeastern British Columbia, and central Northwest Territories. Moderate to severe deficits are expected to continue in west-central Saskatchewan. Additionally, similar deficits are forecast in central British Columbia. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected to continue in southern Saskatchewan, near Lake Diefenbaker, and east of Lake Athabasca, which continues north into southeastern Northwest Territories. 

The forecast for the final months – January 2025 through March 2025 – anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in pockets within Northwest Territories, Alberta, and British Columbia. Surpluses are expected to linger in southeastern Northwest Territories, northern and southern Saskatchewan, and central British Columbia.  

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The water levels of the Mackenzie River are reportedly two meters below average, a major decrease compared to the typical seasonal fluctuations of 50 centimeters. “This has never been seen before,” said Dieter Cazon, land and resources manager for the Liidlii Kue First Nation at Fort Simpson. “We’ve asked elders, ‘Does anybody have stories about water being this incredibly low?’ Nobody has these stories.” Two years ago, bodies of water in the Mackenzie system were at all-time highs. “The fact that water levels have dropped so much, that’s definitely unprecedented,” said hydrologist Ryan Connon.

Rising temperatures and prolonged drought has forced the implementation of water supply restrictions in the B.C. Interior, banning residents from watering their lawns. As of July 16th, residents who rely on the Spences Bridge Community Water Systems were required to immediately stop using sprinklers for outdoor watering. According to the notice, sprinkler use contributed to the depletion of the system’s wells. 

Other regions in British Columbia, including regions on Vancouver Island, have implemented similar restrictions on water due to drought and increasingly warm temperatures. In eastern Vancouver Island, the drought rating for the region has reached level 4, its highest warning level. A level 4 warning indicates that conditions are “extremely dry” and that “the water supply won’t meet economic or environmental needs.” The Ministry of Forests Lands and Natural Resource Operations recently stated that many streams on Vancouver Island are “at or near record-low flows.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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