Europe: Exceptional deficits continues in E Europe

Europe: Exceptional deficits continues in E Europe

19 July 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in March 2025 indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will resolve in most western countries, but will remain as moderate to severe surpluses in several countries. Exceptional deficits will continue in pockets of eastern Europe.

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in the following areas:

  • Spain, with exceptional deficits spanning its eastern coast, near the cities of Zaragoza, Denia, and Almeria. 

  • Italy, with the highest concentrations appearing in the province of Foggia and the Metropolitan City of Reggio Calabria. Southern coastal regions of Greece, as well as its Gortynia Municipality, can expect exceptional deficits. 

  • Romania, widespread throughout the country, with deficits surrounding the city of Bucharest and continuing north into the town of Suceava.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

  • France, with the most intense anomalies occurring in areas surrounding the Gironde Estuary. 

  • Northwestern Italy, in areas west of the city of Turin, which continue west into the French city of Briancon.

  • Eastern Switzerland, with anomalies continuing east into western Hungary. 

  • Across much of Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg. 

  • Throughout much of Denmark, with anomalies moving further north into southern Norway.  

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through September 2024 indicates that exceptional surplus will continue throughout southwestern France and northern Italy. Moderate to severe surplus is expected to cover much of the remaining regions of France, which continues north into Belgium, the Netherlands, and Denmark. Northern regions of Finland can expect moderate to severe surpluses to arise. Eastern Europe is expected to experience widespread deficits, with the most intense anomalies occurring in central Romania, western Serbia, southeastern Ukraine, and southern coastal regions of Greece. Northern Sicily and southern Italy can expect extreme deficits. 

From October through December 2024, eastern Poland, Lithuania, western Belarus, and eastern Slovenia are expected to observe mostly moderate deficits. The remaining regions of Europe are expected to observe near-normal conditions to abnormal deficits. 

The forecast for the final months – January 2025 through March 2025 – anticipates most of Europe to observe near-normal conditions. Some portions of eastern Germany, Austria, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and the Czech Republic may experience abnormal to moderate surplus.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In Romania, corn and sunflower production are expected to be significantly reduced, as nearly two million hectares of land is currently affected by severe drought. As a result, agriculture minister Florin Barbu announced financial compensation for farmers between EUR 200 and EUR 250 per hectare of damaged crops. The compensation plan is estimated to range between EUR 500 to 600 million. The Romanian government also plans to request financial assistance from the European Commission to aid the affected agricultural sectors. 

The Greek Island of Naxos faces a water crisis in the wake of the tourist season. The biggest reservoir on the island has been depleted, and as tourists begin to arrive in record numbers, water supplies are expected to be even more strained. “In recent years there has been a problem with water shortages, and this year in particular we are experiencing it more intensely,” says local hotel owner Vangelis Katsaras. Three portable desalination units are being used to replenish the island’s water supply, which Mayor Dimitris Lianos anticipates will cover the shortages for houses, hotels, and pools. Farmers are not expected to receive any of the treated water, and will continue to rely on wells contaminated by saltwater aquifers.

In southern Italy, drought and increasing temperatures are depleting water supplies for farmers. In Sicily, a state of emergency has been declared as the heat destroys crops and jeopardizes livestock. "The situation is dramatic. There is no longer any water for the animals to drink," sId local farmer Luca Cammarata. "The only water resource we have is this artificial pond, but now there is nothing but mud. The National Association of the Agricultural Water Board stated in March that some reservoirs of potable water were at “only 10% capacity,” prompting a region-wide restriction of water consumption. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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