Central Asia & Russia: Deficits continue near Lake Baikal

Central Asia & Russia: Deficits continue near Lake Baikal

19 July 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in March 2025 indicates that pockets of exceptional deficits will remain in regions near Lake Baikal, while northern coastal regions of Russia can expect surpluses of varying intensity. Much of northern Kazakhstan can anticipate severe to exceptional surplus. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

  • Northern Kazakhstan, throughout the regions of North Kazakhstan, Qostanay, Aqmola, and Pavlodar. These anomalies continue into eastern and northwestern regions of the country. 

  • Northern Russia, in the northern coastal regions of Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. 

  • Eastern Russia, in southern portions of Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District.

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in the following areas:

  • Southeastern Russia, in regions east of Lake Baikal, in the Buryatia region.

  • Southern Russia, with extreme to exceptional deficits covering central regions of the Irkutsk Oblast.

  • Central Uzbekistan, near the city of Zarafshan. 

  • Central Turkmenistan, in eastern regions of the Daşoguz Region. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through September 2024 anticipates severe to extreme surplus to continue throughout the majority of northern Kazakhstan. Moderate to severe surpluses will remain in eastern Kazakhstan. Exceptional surplus is expected to emerge in northern coastal regions of Nenets Autonomous Okrug, as well as areas along the northern coast of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. Exceptional deficits will continue in regions west of Lake Baikal, in central Irkutsk Oblast, as well as in the Buryatia region. 

From October through December 2024, exceptional deficits in eastern Russia are expected to resolve, with some moderate to severe deficits remaining in the Buryatia region. Severe to extreme surpluses will remain widespread throughout most of northern Kazakhstan. Eastern Kazakhstan can anticipate moderate to severe surpluses to linger. 

The forecast for the final months – January 2025 through March 2025 – indicates that extreme surpluses will dissipate in northern and eastern Kazakhstan, though some pockets of moderate to severe surplus will remain. The majority of Russia is expected to observe continued near-normal conditions, with some sparse pockets of moderate to severe deficits appearing in eastern portions of the Buryatia region. Western areas of Buryatia may experience pockets of exceptional deficit.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Farmers in southern Russia, particularly the Rostov and Volgograd regions, are facing declining crop health due to extreme weather. Last month, officials in Rostov declared a state of emergency as abnormal frost damaged agricultural lands. Additionally, Volgograd was affected by drought, where an irrigation canal was completely depleted which jeopardized vegetable crops on tens of thousands of hectares. Analysts cited concern that these events may lead to price increases for common vegetables such as onions, carrots, and potatoes.

In a government meeting held on July 17th, Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov pushed for the acceleration of housing restoration efforts implemented after intense flooding in northern Kazakhstan. Approximately 19,342 residences were damaged, with 8,578 of them deemed irreparable. Bektenov instructed mayors of affected areas to mobilize people and provide equipment for each restoration facility. “We need to speed up the pace of restoration work. All questions related to the supply of construction materials, mobilization of labor resources and special equipment at sites must be resolved promptly. It is important to ensure compliance with all building codes and safety requirements. Regional akims bear personal responsibility for the quality of houses,” said Bektenov.

On July 14th, the Osh region of Kyrgyzstan experienced destructive flooding as the Ak-Buura River overflowed into nearby communities, killing at least five people and prompting a state of emergency declaration. According to the mayor’s office of Osh, 134 houses in the region and a local market were flooded. Additionally, seven cars were washed away in the Toloikon area. Nine social facilities were damaged, including four schools, two hospitals, and one museum. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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