Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Deficits continue across Mainland SE Asia

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Deficits continue across mainland SE Asia

21 July 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in March 2025 indicates that severe to exceptional surpluses will continue in central and eastern regions of Maritime Southeast Asia. Pockets of severe to exceptional deficits are expected to spread across most of Mainland Southeast Asia. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in the following areas:

  • Northern and southern Myanmar, throughout the Tanintharyi Region and in the state of Kachin. 

  • Thailand, appearing in pockets in the districts of Umphang, Nakhon Ratchasima, Kanchanaburi, and Nong Khai.

  • Laos, with exceptional deficits appearing throughout the Bolikhamsai and Phongsaly provinces, and near the Nam Ngum Reservoir.

  • Vietnam, throughout the Dien Bien and Quảng Nam provinces. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

  • Indonesia, appearing primarily in northwestern Kalimantan, eastern portions of the Lesser Sunda Islands, central Sumatra, and western coastal regions of Sulawesi. 

  • Malaysia, near the city of Kuala Lumpur. 

  • Widespread throughout Papua, as well as central, western, and southern Papua New Guinea. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through September 2024 indicates that exceptional surpluses will persist in southern coastal regions of Papua and Papua New Guinea. Most deficits in Southeast Asia are expected to resolve. Moderate to severe surpluses will occur in northern Papua, central Papua New Guinea, eastern Borneo, and in areas along the shared border of southern Borneo and northern Kalimantan. Further west, moderate to severe surpluses are expected in central Sumatra and in southern Malaysia, near the city of Kuala Lumpur. 

From October through December 2024, most severe to exceptional surpluses in Southeast Asia are expected to resolve, becoming primarily near-normal conditions. Some moderate surpluses may linger in southern and western Papua, southern Papua New Guinea, southwestern Kalimantan, and North Maluku. 

The forecast for the final months – January 2025 through March 2025 – indicates that near-normal conditions will continue throughout most regions of Southeast Asia. Some pockets of moderate to severe surplus are expected to linger in southern coastal regions of Papua and Papua New Guinea. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
15 deaths have been reported in central Indonesia due to landslides. At least 17 citizens of Tana Toraja in South Sulawesi were evacuated April 13th, with only two people surviving. “According to reports from residents, there are still two individuals reported missing, presumably buried under the landslide debris,” local disaster agency head Sulaiman Maila said the following day. The landslides were triggered by heavy rains and affected Tana Toraja and its surrounding areas.

Intense heat waves have emerged in Southeast Asia and are anticipated to continue. According to an April 10th report from climatologist Maximiliano Herrera, Thailand has had the most hit the hardest, as the country has been “breaking non-stop records” for 13 months. “We thought temperatures last year were unbearable but (what we are seeing) this year has beaten that – temperatures in Bangkok won’t drop below 30 degrees Celsius, even at night for the rest of April,” said Herrera. “The trend is inescapable. The region has to prepare for terrible heat for the rest of April and most of May.” 

Tsunami warnings were issued in Indonesia due to a volcano in North Sulawesi erupting five times over the course of 24 hours. Thousands were evacuated after a volcano on Mount Ruang, located on the Ruang island, spurt lava, rock, ash nearly 3 kilometers into the sky. It initially erupted at 9:45pm local time on April 16th, and then four more times on the 17th. Officials voiced concern over portions of the volcano potentially collapsing into the sea, which would increase the risk for more significant disaster events to occur. Back in 1871, similar conditions occurred in the country, which produced a 25 meter high tsunami.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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