Middle East: Deficits persist throughout southern, central areas

Middle East: Deficits persist throughout southern, central areas

21 July 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in March 2025 indicates that deficits will downgrade in intensity across most of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria, but will remain present throughout most of the region. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in the following areas: 

  • Yemen, throughout most of the Hadramaut, Sheba, and Shabwah regions. 

  • Oman, throughout areas of the Al Wusta, Ad Dakhiliyah, and Ash Sharqiyah governorates. 

  • Southern Saudi Arabia, across the Nahran province, as well as southern regions of the Ridyadh and Eastern provinces. 

  • Turkey, across northern coastal regions of the country bordering the Black Sea. 

  • Northern Saudi Arabia, with severe deficits occurring across the Tabuk and Jawf provinces, as well as much of Jordan and southern Syria. Nearby, southern to southeastern areas of Iraq can expect deficits to appear near Lake Tharthar and Hammer Lake.  

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

  • Southeastern Iran, in easternmost portions of the Sistan and Baluchestan province.

  • Central Iran, with isolated pockets appearing in western regions of the Kerman province. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through September 2024 anticipates exceptional deficits to appear in central Saudi Arabia, in central regions of the Riyadh province. Deficits are expected to mostly resolve in Yemen and Oman, with some pockets of exceptional deficits continuing in the latter. Southeastern Iraq can anticipate widespread deficits, as well as northern coastal regions of Turkey bordering the Black Sea. Pockets of deficit are expected to appear across much of southern Iran, appearing within the Kerman, Fars, and Bushehr provinces. 

From October through December 2024, exceptional deficits are expected to reappear in southern Saudi Arabia, eastern Yemen, and throughout much of Oman. Isolated pockets of deficits may persist in regions of southeastern Iraq, southeastern Iran, and western Turkey. 

The forecast for the final months – January 2025 through March 2025 – indicates that near-normal conditions to abnormal deficits will continue across most of the region. Exceptional deficits may persist in eastern Yemen and central Oman. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS

Water restrictions have been implemented in several Iranian cities as the region experiences an ongoing water shortage. Affected cities include Damavand, Khash, Genaveh, Harris, and Mahshahr. 200 villages in the Golestan Province have also been affected by water shortages, which have resorted to using tankers to preserve water supplies. The state news agency ILNA stated that 90% of the water used in the Golestan Province is used in agriculture. Some residents have begun protests in response to the water restrictions. 

Recent studies indicate that temperatures in northwestern Syria’s breadbasket region are projected to rise by 1°C by 2050. Additionally, the frequency of seasons averaging monthly temperatures above 30°C is also expected to increase. The area is expected to deteriorate due to drought and evaporation. In the past, the region experienced excessive cropping, deforestation, conflict-driven excessive use of natural resources, and greywater pollution.

In Turkey, giant sinkholes have started to appear in regions of the Konya province, otherwise known as the country’s breadbasket. "One of the major factors with sinkholes is climate change," says Arif Delikan, associate professor of Konya Technical University. Over 640 sinkholes have appeared in Konya, with over 600 of them appearing in the municipality of Karpinar. Delikan further stated that the region has been losing surface water due to drought since 2004, and that farmers have begun using groundwater to irrigate crops. Consequently, Delikan explained that water levels in Karapinar have been dropping by “by 10 to 20 meters per year.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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