Europe: Deficits persist in e Europe

20 August 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in April 2025 indicates that exceptional surplus will resolve in some western and central regions of Europe, becoming mostly near-normal conditions to moderate surplus. Eastern European countries are expected to observe enduring deficits, mostly of moderate to severe intensity.

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in the following countries:

Northeastern Poland, with deficits appearing in regions near the city of Warsaw.
Romania, widespread throughout central and southeastern regions of the country, surrounding the city of Bucharest. These deficits continue into the southernmost areas of Moldova.
Eastern Ukraine, throughout the Kharkiv and Luhansk oblasts.
Greece, throughout the Peloponnese region. These deficits will also be present nearby in Italy, widespread throughout the Province of Foggia.
Southeastern Spain, in regions north of the city of Almería.

Moderate to extreme surpluses are expected in:

Northern Italy, throughout the Lombardy region and continuing north into western areas of Austria.
Netherlands, widespread throughout the entire country.
Denmark, throughout the region of Sørlande.
Southern Norway, eastern coastal regions of Sweden’s Robertsfors Municipality, and in northern Finland, near the city of Rovaniemi.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through October 2024 predicts that surpluses of severe to extreme intensity will persist in southwestern and northern areas of France, as well as in central to southern regions of Spain and south-central Portugal. Extreme surpluses are expected to continue throughout Denmark. Central and eastern European countries are expected to observe widespread deficits, with the most intense anomalies appearing in eastern Poland, western Ukraine, and eastern to southeastern regions of Romania. Southernmost regions of Italy, specifically near the city of Reggio Calabria, can expect exceptional deficits to continue, as well as eastern coastal regions of Sicily, near the city of Messina.

From November through January 2025, severe anomalies are expected to dissipate from most European countries. Moderate deficits may remain in regions of eastern Poland. Moderate surpluses may appear in the Baltics and in western coastal regions of Norway.

The forecast for the final months – February 2025 through April 2025, expects near-normal conditions and abnormal anomalies to remain throughout most of Europe. Moderate surpluses may arise in large areas of southern Norway and central Sweden. Pockets of central Finland may also observe moderate surpluses.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Romanian farmers fear a 90% loss of corn and sunflower crops in some agricultural areas due to prolonged heat waves and widespread drought. “It's a disaster. It hasn't rained… I don't even know if I will be able to cover the costs,” said local farmer Iulian Groza. Officials report roughly 65% of all sunflower crops are currently affected by drought, which is expected to persist, according to the National Meteorological Administration. Adela Apostu, a representative of the country’s Agricultural Department, saw an influx of "approximately 300 applications” for assistance related to the growing concern of regional crop health.

On August 13th, suburban residents of Athens returned to their destroyed homes after drought-related wildfires forced them to evacuate. One death has been confirmed to have been caused by the blaze. As of the 13th, wind gusts of up to forty miles an hour continue in the area, prolonging the threat of more fires. In a precautionary measure, firefighters doused local buildings, land, and infrastructure. “If they don't soak these houses, if they don't soak the land, they could catch fire again,” said local news reporter Sangita Lal.

70% of Sicily is currently at risk of desertification as the country experiences one of its most severe water shortages in history. In 2021, the island recorded record-breaking temperatures of 48.8 degrees Celsius. More recently, in the last six months of 2023, the island only saw 150 mm of rain, which prompted the government of Rome to declare a state of emergency. As the island’s tourist season continues, the inundation of visitors puts additional pressure on water supplies. Most of the island’s lakes are reportedly almost dry, including the artificial lake of Fanaco in central Sicily. This lake once had a capacity of 20 million cubic meters of water, but as of August 19th holds just 300,000.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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