Australia & New Zealand: Surplus continues in N Australia

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus continues in n Australia

20 August 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast ending in April 2025 indicates that surpluses will persist in central, northern, and southeastern regions of Australia. Exceptional deficits are expected to dissipate in western Australia, but continue in Tasmania and southern New Zealand. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in: 

  • Northern Territory, with severe to extreme surpluses continuing in central to southern portions of the region. ·       

  • New South Wales, with severe surpluses spreading along eastern coastal areas near Sydney and continuing south near the town of Eden. 

  • Central Western Australia, with extreme to exceptional surpluses appearing throughout Little Sandy Desert and the Gibson Desert Nature Reserve. 

  • Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in: 

  • Tasmania, with extreme to exceptional deficits expanding into most western to southwestern regions of the country. 

  • New Zealand, with severe to extreme deficits continuing throughout South Island.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through October 2024 indicates that transitional conditions will appear widespread throughout northern regions of Northern Territory and in Queensland, particularly throughout the Yorke Peninsula. Nearby, exceptional deficits are anticipated to emerge in northern Western Australia within the Kimberley region. Moderate to severe surplus is expected to continue in eastern coastal regions of New South Wales. Severe to extreme deficits are expected to linger in western to southern Tasmania, while moderate to severe deficits are expected in southern regions of New Zealand’s South Island. 

From November through January 2025, intense transitional conditions are expected to disappear from northern Australia. Severe to extreme surpluses are expected to continue in central to southern portions of Northern Territory, as well as eastern regions of the Murray-Darling River basin. Western to southern Tasmania is expected to observe enduring severe deficits. Southern areas of New Zealand’s South Island should anticipate moderate to severe deficits to linger. 

The forecast for the final months – February 2025 through April 2025, anticipates that abnormal deficits will cover much of Australia, with some moderate surpluses occurring in northern portions of Northern Territory and Queensland. Surpluses are expected to endure in eastern coastal regions of New South Wales. Further south, moderate deficits will continue in western to southern Tasmania. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS

On August 14th, record-breaking rainfall hit regions of Queensland and New South Wales, with over 100 millimeters accumulating in less than six hours. Sarah Scully, representative of the Bureau of Meteorology, said several places in southeast Queensland reported their wettest days on record for August 14th. 

Regions of Western Australia saw intense rainfall as torrential downpours swept across southern portions of the area. The Bureau of Meteorology confirmed that a significant number of same-day and two-day consecutive rainfall records for August were broken. The extreme weather occurred as a cold front passed over the same area. Regions that reported record-high rains include Jarrahwood, Busselton Airport, Ludlow, Yoongarillup, and Chapman Hill. The rain caused widespread flooding, but brought some relief to farmers across the Great Southern region, which reportedly helped crops after prolonged dry spells.

According to the Insurance Council of Australia, insurance premiums are increasing due to more frequent extreme weather occurring across the country. From 2023 to 2024, more than 150,000 claims were made – nearly 75% more than the previous period. On August 19th, the Insurance Council of Australia's (ICA) Catastrophe Resilience Report was released, which stated that floods were the most significant contributor to Australia's insurance claims related to extreme weather. "Flood is Australia's most costly natural peril," said ICA chief executive Andrew Hall. "It's estimated that around 1.2 million properties face some level of flood risk."

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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