Africa: Surplus expected to emerge along the sahel

17 July 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast ending in April 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will remain widespread in the Sahara and in several central African countries. Surpluses are expected to emerge across the Sahel and will persist in Tanzania.

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in the following countries:

Algeria, widespread throughout the country, continuing into northern sections of Mali and Niger.
Northern Chad, spreading throughout Libya, Egypt, and northwestern regions of Sudan. These deficits will also be present in the Sanaag state of Somalia.
The Democratic Republic of Congo, throughout most central to northern areas of the country. These anomalies continue spreading into the Republic of Congo, Gabon, Cameroon, and central to southwestern Nigeria. Nearby, southern areas of Benin and Togo will experience similar deficits.
Western and central regions of Ivory Coast, continuing in pockets across Liberia, Sierra Leone, and central Guinea.
Zambia, throughout the country’s Southern province and in northwestern Angola, near the town of Maquela do Zombo.

Moderate to extreme surpluses are expected in:

Southern Mali, continuing east along the Sahel into southern Niger, northeastern Nigeria, central Chad, and western Sudan.
Tanzania, with the most intense anomalies occurring near the city of Dar es Salaam, continuing north into southwestern to central Kenya and isolated regions of southern Somalia.
Southwestern coastal regions of South Africa, near the city of Cape Town.
Western coastal regions of Angola, near the city of Luanda.

Transitional conditions are forecast in:

Southern Mali, near the city of Bamako.
Northern Nigeria, near the city of Kano.
Southern Chad, spreading through areas near the cities of Mondou and Sarh.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through October 2024 indicates that intense deficits will remain in northern regions of Mali, as well as in several pockets across Algeria. Western and northern coastal areas of Libya will observe exceptional deficits. Southern coastal regions along the Gulf of Guinea can anticipate pockets of severe to exceptional deficits, including southern Liberia, Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Nigeria. Severe to exceptional deficits are expected further inland, in southern Cameroon, northern Gabon, southern Republic of Congo, and northern areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Pockets of exceptional deficits are also anticipated in south-central Angola, throughout southern Zambia, north-central Mozambique, central Botswana, and eastern Namibia. Severe to extreme surpluses are forecast along the Sahel, beginning in southern Mali and spreading east into northern Nigeria and southern to central Chad. Exceptional surpluses and transitional conditions are expected to occur across Tasmania, as well as northernmost areas of Mozambique and Madagascar.

From November through January 2025, most deficits across Africa are expected to diminish. Surpluses are expected to persist along the Sahel, with the highest concentrations appearing in northeastern Nigeria, central to southern Chad, and southwestern Sudan. Some transitional conditions are anticipated in southern Mali and northern Nigeria. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected throughout Uganda and western Tanzania.

The forecast for the final months – February 2025 through April 2025, indicates that most African countries will observe near-normal conditions. Some abnormal deficits are expected in regions of the Sahara Desert. Surpluses are expected to persist along the Sahel. Transitional conditions are expected to persist in northern Nigeria.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.
IMPACTS
A new report from the UN stated that Zimbabwe’s food crisis is worsening due to El Niño-related drought. The dry conditions have destroyed more than half of the country’s harvest, putting roughly 7.6 million people at risk of acute hunger. 57% of people living in rural areas of the country are expected to be affected by food scarcity between January and March 2025 – a period when widespread hunger is already typical. This report follows warnings from the UN just two months prior, which stated that the country was likely to experience acute food shortages.

The World Food Programme (WFP) has only raised one-fifth of its goal for drought response assistance in southern Africa. The WFP planned to provide assistance to seven countries, but funding has been increasingly difficult to acquire as the region’s food needs continue to grow. Affected countries include Zambia, Malawi, and Zimbabwe, each of which have declared states of emergency. Similarly to Zimbabwe, drought in Malawi and Zimbabwe has been worsened by El Niño. "We are very worried," said Ghelani. "In fact, we are seeing a sharp increase in the number of people going hungry."

As Algeria continues to endure widespread water stress, its government is exploring desalination and wastewater recycling to stabilize supplies. Officials estimate that these methods have the potential to cover 60% of the country’s water needs by 2030. Desalination is a controversial method of water production, as its cost and environmental impact is cause for concern. Algerian officials stated their awareness of this and plans to reduce the impact by incorporating environmentally friendly infrastructure in its plants, such as solar panels.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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