Middle East: Deficits persist in C, S Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Oman

26 August 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in May 2024 anticipates widespread deficits of varying intensity to occur across most of the region. Areas of surplus are expected to persist in Turkey.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are anticipated in several areas, including:

Yemen, widespread throughout the country.
Oman, primarily across the Al Wusta, Ad Dakhiliyah, and Ad Dhahirah Governorates.
Saudi Arabia, widespread throughout central and southern regions. The most intense concentrations appear across the Tuwayq Mountains, west of Riyadh, and across the Rub' al Khali desert.
Eastern Iran, with deficits appearing across the Kerman, northern Sistan and Baluchestan, and South Khorasan provinces.

Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in:

Western United Arab Emirates, in most of the western regions of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi.
Southeastern Saudi Arabia, throughout the Al Udeid region.

Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in the following countries:

Northern regions of Turkey near the city of Çorum. Similarly intense surplus is expected in southwestern regions of the country, near the city of Denizli.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through November 2023 predicts that exceptional deficits will continue to be widespread in Saudi Arabia, affecting most central regions of the country near Riyadh, as well as southern portions of Al Ahsa. These deficits continue north into regions near the city of Hafar Al Batin, much of Kuwait, and southern regions of Iraq’s Al-Salman District. Deficits in eastern Iran are expected to continue across the Kerman, northern Sistan and Baluchestan, and South Khorasan provinces. Surpluses in western Turkey are expected to persist but slightly downgrade in magnitude.

From December through February 2024 anticipates most regions to experience near-normal conditions, with the exception of exceptional deficits continuing throughout much of Yemen and Oman. Further north, central Iraq, western Iran, and southeastern Turkey can expect mild to moderate surplus.

The forecast for the final months – March through May 2024 – expects deficits in Yemen and Oman to shrink dramatically, only lingering in areas near the region of Zamakh and the cities of Al Mukalla and Ash Shuwaymiyah.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Acute malnutrition is rising in Government of Yemen-controlled areas of the country. In the West Coast region, inhabitants are experiencing “extremely critical” levels for the first time as categorized by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Technical Working Group. A recent IPC Acute Malnutrition Analysis reported that the number of children under the age of five suffering from acute malnutrition rose by 34 percent compared to 2023, affecting over 600,000 children; 120,000 are severely malnourished. These levels are rising due to food scarcity, lack of potable water, and outbreaks of cholera and measles. Additionally, around 223,000 pregnant women in the same areas were acutely malnourished. “The report confirms an alarming trend of acute malnutrition for children in southern Yemen,” said UNICEF representative Peter Hawkins.

In Iraq’s Kurdistan region, locals constructed a nursery to protect local vegetation from the area’s rampant water scarcity, rising temperatures, and deforestation. The nursery, located in the Kurdish city of Sulaymaniyah, is part of efforts to battle deforestation. "Almost 50 percent of forests have been lost in Kurdistan in 70 years," said Nyaz Ibrahim of the UN's World Food Programme. As Kurdistan is home to 90 percent of Iraq’s forests, nearly 40 varieties of trees, including pines, cypresses, junipers, and oaks, are grown within the nursery to be later planted in forests or distributed to farmers. "Climate change has an impact on the development of plants," said agricultural engineer Rawa Abdulqader. "So we prioritize trees that can withstand high temperatures and which consume less water."

In Turkey, one of the country’s largest and most vital sources of freshwater is experiencing significantly low levels due to drought. Egirdir Lake, once averaging a depth of 16 meters in the 1950s, is currently at 3.2 meters, reaching a 70% decline. As drought depletes the lake’s water levels, it also reveals severe levels of pollution. “The overwhelming growth of algae is a clear indicator of the lake’s pollution,” said Dr. Erol Kesici, a scientific advisor to the Turkish Nature Protection Association . “The lake water has degraded to the level of fourth-class water, the lowest quality,” he explained.
NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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