South Asia: Exceptional surplus expands in S India

South Asia: Exceptional surplus expands in S India

27 August 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast ending in April 2025 indicates that severe to exceptional surpluses will expand in southern regions of India, while pockets of exceptional deficits emerge in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Exceptional deficits are anticipated in the following countries:

  • Western and northern India, across the state of Rajasthan, as well as in central to northern portions of Himachal Pradesh.

  • Western and eastern Pakistan, in areas northwest of Hanna Lake and near the city of Rahim Yar Khan.

  • Southwestern Afghanistan, in southern regions of the Nimruz Province.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

  • Southern India, throughout coastal regions of the state of Kerala, spreading further north into the state of Karnataka and across the Krishna River.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through October 2024 predicts that exceptional deficits will emerge in central Afghanistan, while moderate to severe surpluses will remain in eastern regions of the country. North-central and southern India can expect moderate to severe surpluses to endure. Some northernmost regions of India, particularly in northern Himachal Pradesh, should expect moderate to severe deficits to persist. 

From November through January 2025, exceptional deficits are expected to appear in regions of western India and eastern to southern Pakistan. North-central and southern regions of India are expected to experience moderate to severe surpluses, as can regions of eastern Afghanistan, near the city of Kabul. 

The forecast for the final months – February 2025 through April 2025, expects exceptional deficits in western India and Pakistan to dissipate. Some moderate to severe deficits may persist in northern regions of the state of Himachal Pradesh. Moderate to severe surpluses will linger in southern and north-central areas of India.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Devastating floods caused 15 deaths and isolated hundreds of thousands of people in northeastern India and eastern Bangladesh. At least 11 deaths were caused by floods and mudslides in India’s northeastern state of Tripura, while four deaths occurred due to similar conditions in Bangladesh near shared rivers along their border. Authorities have opened more than 300 relief camps in Tripura, where the number of people shifting to the camps was estimated to run into thousands.

In an effort to improve flood resilience and water conservation, India recently announced plans to spend nearly $300 million towards relevant projects over the course of the next two years. This funding will go towards expanding water bodies in seven cities, including Mumbai, Chennai, and Bengaluru. Flooding occurs often in India, as well as flood-related fatalities. Earlier in July, over 11.8 inches of rain accumulated in Mumbai, the country’s financial capital, in six hours. 

On August 1st, the Pakistani city of Lahore saw record-high rainfall, which flooded homes and destroyed local infrastructure. Some portions of the city, specifically places along the border of neighboring India, saw 14 inches over the course of a few hours. The downpour broke a previous record of 332 millimeters over three hours, which occurred in July 1980. Farooq Dar, Pakistan Meteorological Department's deputy director, Farooq Dar, called the deluge "record-breaking rainfall." 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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