Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surplus expands throughout S Myanmar, Papua New Guinea

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surplus expands throughout S Myanmar, Papua New Guinea

27 August 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast ending in April 2025 indicates that most extreme to exceptional deficits in the region will dissipate, as well as most extreme to exceptional surpluses. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected to expand throughout Papua and Papua New Guinea, as well as southern Myanmar. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in: 

  • Southern Myanmar, in most areas south of the city of Naypyidaw.

  • Northwestern Thailand, in pockets throughout the provinces of Mae Hong Son and Chiang Mai. 

    Indonesia, in isolated regions of northwestern Kalimantan. 

  • Papua and Papua New Guinea, throughout the majority of both regions. 

Severe to extreme deficits are anticipated in:

  • North-central Myanmar, in central areas of the Sagaing Region.

  • Indonesia, in southern coastal regions of northern Sumatra and Aceh. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through October 2024 predicts that most surpluses in Maritime Southeast Asia will dissipate. Deficits of moderate to severe intensity are expected throughout Sumatra and Malaysia. Moderate to severe surpluses may appear in Saban, southern Myanmar, and southern areas of Papua and Papua New Guinea. 

From November through January 2025, most Southeast Asian countries can anticipate near-normal conditions. Abnormal to moderate surpluses may continue in western Myanmar, southern Vietnam, Papua, and Papua New Guinea. 

The forecast for the final months – February 2025 through April 2025, indicates that abnormal to moderate deficits may emerge throughout Maritime Southeast Asia, in Kalimantan, Sulawesi, northern Sumatra, and western Papua. Southernmost areas of Papua and Papua New Guinea can anticipate abnormal to moderate surpluses. 

 IMPACTS
15 deaths have been reported in central Indonesia due to landslides. At least 17 citizens of Tana Toraja in South Sulawesi were evacuated April 13th, with only two people surviving. “According to reports from residents, there are still two individuals reported missing, presumably buried under the landslide debris,” local disaster agency head Sulaiman Maila said the following day. The landslides were triggered by heavy rains and affected Tana Toraja and its surrounding areas.

Intense heat waves have emerged in Southeast Asia and are anticipated to continue. According to an April 10th report from climatologist Maximiliano Herrera, Thailand has had the most hit the hardest, as the country has been “breaking non-stop records” for 13 months. “We thought temperatures last year were unbearable but (what we are seeing) this year has beaten that – temperatures in Bangkok won’t drop below 30 degrees Celsius, even at night for the rest of April,” said Herrera. “The trend is inescapable. The region has to prepare for terrible heat for the rest of April and most of May.” 

Tsunami warnings were issued in Indonesia due to a volcano in North Sulawesi erupting five times over the course of 24 hours. Thousands were evacuated after a volcano on Mount Ruang, located on the Ruang island, spurt lava, rock, ash nearly 3 kilometers into the sky. It initially erupted at 9:45pm local time on April 16th, and then four more times on the 17th. Officials voiced concern over portions of the volcano potentially collapsing into the sea, which would increase the risk for more significant disaster events to occur. Back in 1871, similar conditions occurred in the country, which produced a 25 meter high tsunami.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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