East Asia: Deficits continue throughout NW China

East Asia: Deficits continue throughout NW China

28 August 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast ending in April 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will continue throughout northwestern China. Western and northeastern regions of China will experience severe to exceptional surpluses. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in: 

  • Eastern Tibet, in areas surrounding the city of Lhasa. 

  • Western Qinghai, in isolated regions of the Haixi Mongol and Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture. 

  • Shandong, throughout the Shandong  Peninsula. 

  • Jilin and Heilongjiang, throughout central to eastern regions of both provinces. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in the following countries: 

  • Central to southeastern Xinjiang, throughout the Hotan and Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous prefectures and the city of Hami. 

  • Gansu, throughout most northwestern and central regions of the province. 

  • Western Inner Mongolia, throughout the Alxa League.

  • Western Tibet, in western areas of the Ngari Prefecture. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through October 2024 predicts that exceptional deficits in northwestern China will resolve, as well as most severe to exceptional surpluses in Tibet. Pockets of exceptional deficit will remain in isolated regions of central to eastern Xinjiang, as well as westernmost portions of Tibet. Moderate to severe surplus is expected to remain throughout the Shandong Peninsula. 

From November through January 2025, exceptional deficits are expected to expand in central to eastern Xinjiang. Severe to extreme deficits are expected to endure in western Tibet. Some pockets of moderate deficits are expected to appear in eastern coastal regions near the city of Shanghai, which continue south into coastal regions of Guangdong. Northern areas of Tibet’s Ngari Prefecture can anticipate moderate to severe surpluses to linger, as well as throughout the Shandong Peninsula. 

The forecast for the final months – February 2025 through April 2025, most exceptional deficits in northwestern China are expected to resolve. Some moderate to severe deficits may continue in western Tibet. Moderate to severe surplus may continue in northern to eastern Tibet, as well as in the Shandong Peninsula. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Despite an increase in hydropower capacity, continuous severe droughts in China have reduced the generation of hydroelectric power. The droughts particularly affect river flows in southwest China, where a significant amount of hydropower is generated. As the region continues to see less than sufficient rainfall, the amount of water available to drive turbines and produce electricity is also insufficient. The decline in hydroelectric power output is occurring at the same time as China’s hydroelectric power capacity increased by 7.8%. 

China recently used long-endurance strike and reconnaissance drones for cloud-seeding in the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region to combat dry conditions. This is the first time that China has used drones for cloud-seeding purposes, which began on August 4th, and is scheduled to continue for 45 days. These trials will also test the success rate of cloud-seeding in high altitude areas.

Vice Premier Liu Guozhong recently stated that China's agricultural sector must improve its capacity for disaster prevention and mitigation, vowing to provide more financial support. In the statement, Liu called for the strengthening of rainfall monitoring to provide early warnings and enhance resilience against extreme weather in China's northeastern provinces. His comments follow his recent visit to areas that were affected by flooding, specifically in the provinces of Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang. The flooding led to a near doubling of economic losses from natural disasters in July from a year earlier, which was estimated to be nearly $10.1 billion. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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