United States: Exceptional deficits emerge in western states

26 September 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast ending in May 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will emerge in several western states. Severe to extreme surpluses will arise in southern portions of Florida, as well as throughout the majority of non-contiguous states.

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in:

Southern California, appearing throughout much of the Inland Empire area. These deficits continue into western and southernmost regions of Nevada, as well as areas along the border of southern California and western Arizona.
Western and eastern Nevada, in areas near the city of Reno and throughout Elko County.
Southern New Mexico, across much of the state’s southern border. These deficits continue into western Texas, in northern portions of the Trans-Pecos region.
Western Nebraska, in western areas of the Great Plains region, continuing west into portions of Laramie County, Wyoming. Further north, the North Harding region of northwestern South Dakota is expected to observe severe deficits.
West Virginia, widespread throughout the state, continuing into southeastern Ohio and southern Pennsylvania.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

Minnesota, throughout most south-central regions of the state. These surpluses continue east into Wisconsin, particularly within Polk County and in regions near the city of Appleton.
Southern Florida, throughout most areas south of Lake Okeechobee and throughout the Everglades.
Alaska, with the most intense anomalies appearing throughout coastal areas of the Far North and Southwest regions, as well as throughout the Seward Peninsula.
Puerto Rico, throughout central and eastern regions of the state.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN

The forecast through November 2024 indicates that severe to extreme deficits will arise in western and northern areas of Montana and western North Dakota, with moderate deficits covering the remaining majority of Montana. Isolated pockets of severe deficits are expected to endure in southern New Mexico. Moderate to severe deficits are also anticipated in eastern Kansas, western to eastern Missouri, southeastern Ohio, and across West Virginia. Severe to extreme surpluses are anticipated throughout the majority of Florida and are expected to continue north into coastal regions of Georgia and southern to central South Carolina. Coastal areas of California’s Central Coast region are forecast to experience severe to extreme surpluses, as are northern and central Alaska and Puerto Rico.

From December through February 2025, most severe to extreme deficits are expected to dissipate from northern, central, and eastern states. Isolated regions of southern New Mexico, northern Texas, western Wyoming, and central Colorado may observe moderate to severe deficits. Surpluses of moderate to severe intensity are expected to persist throughout southern Florida, northern to central portions of Alaska, and throughout Puerto Rico. Moderate surpluses may continue in portions of northern Nebraska, central South Dakota, and central Minnesota.

The forecast for the final months – March through May 2025, predicts that most states will continue to observe near-normal conditions and abnormal anomalies. Some portions of southern Florida, Puerto Rico, Alaska, and regions along the border of North and South Dakota may experience moderate surpluses.

IMPACTS
As cases of valley fever emerge in the western United States, public health officials have begun to study the effects of climate on the spread of it and other infectious diseases. “Some infectious diseases are known to be amplified by drought conditions,” says Justin Remais, an environmental health researcher from the University of California, Berkeley. Analysis of climate data and all reported cases in California from 2011 to 2021 revealed that cases of valley fever tend to peak between September and November, which is the end of California’s dry season. While California droughts can temporarily keep cases of valley fever somewhat low, cases greatly increase when rain clouds return to the areas. “We need to better understand how these pathogens are adapting to new environments in order to better prevent infection and protect those at risk in the decades to come,” Remais says.

As drought expands throughout more regions of Ohio, drought relief assistance is becoming available for affected communities. 26 of Ohio’s counties have received disaster designations due to extreme drought, which are implemented in regions afflicted with negative environmental conditions, such as unsatisfactory levels of precipitation, destructive weather conditions, or a lack of natural water sources. According to agricultural specialist Aaron Wilson, farmers, one of the communities most affected, are expected to qualify for this assistance. "They're having to haul a lot of water in to maintain operations there. They're losing crops because of the crop stress or pastures aren't growing," he said. "So they're short on feed. That is costly, Right? It has a big economic impact on farmers."

In Alaska, the town of Juneau continues to deal with widespread flood-related damages following a record-breaking flood in early August. The flood, which was caused by a rupture from Mendenhall Glacier’s Suicide Basin, left homes and roads submerged under several feet of water. Water levels reached almost 16 feet, and closed public faculties and caused blackouts. “I’m from Juneau ... and it has been a huge impact on our community with the flooding,” said Alaska Army National Guardsman Robert Brian. “It has affected, from what I’ve heard, over 600 households and there has been extensive water damage to lots of homes.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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