Canada: Deficits remain in Prairie provinces, N and E Canada

22 September 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast ending in May 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will remain widespread throughout the Prairie provinces, as well as Northwest Territories and the Appalachian region of easternmost Canada.

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in:

Central to northeastern British Columbia, in areas southwest of Williston Lake and throughout the Northern Rockies region. These deficits will persist throughout northwestern Alberta, throughout Mackenzie County.
Central Saskatchewan, widespread in areas between Wollaston Lake and Lac La Ronge. These deficits continue east into central Manitoba, in areas northwest of Lake Winnipeg.
Northern coastal regions of Ontario, in areas of the Unorganized Kenora District along the Hudson Bay.
Northwest Territories, appearing throughout regions south of Great Bear Lake and west of Great Slave Lake. These deficits continue into western Nunavut, specifically in the Kitikmeot and Kivalliq regions.
Eastern Quebec, throughout the Côte-Nord region. These deficits continue north throughout central Newfoundland and Labrador, as well as across most eastern portions of the island of Newfoundland.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

Southwestern Saskatchewan, near the South Saskatchewan River.
Regions along the border of southeastern Northwest Territories and southwestern Nunavut.
Baffin Island, with the most intense anomalies appearing in southern coastal regions of the Kimmirut Inuit Owned Land.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through November 2024 indicates that deficits will persist throughout northeastern British Columbia, northwestern Alberta, central Saskatchewan, and central Manitoba. Exceptional deficits are expected to persist in northern coastal regions of Ontario along the Hudson Bay. Further north, regions directly south of Great Bear Lake are expected to observe continued exceptional deficits, as will western regions of Nunavut, in the Kitikmeot region. Severe to extreme surpluses are expected to arise in Nunavut’s Devon Island.

From December through February 2025, deficits will linger throughout isolated regions of the Prairie provinces – specifically in northeastern British Columbia, northwestern Alberta, central Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and northern coastal regions of Ontario along the Hudson Bay. Deficits south of Great Bear Lake are expected to endure, as are deficits in Nunavut’s Kitikmeot region. Surpluses are expected to linger in Nunavut throughout Devon Island.

The forecast for the final months – March through May 2025 – expects exceptional deficits to persist in northeastern British Columbia, northwestern Alberta, and north-central Saskatchewan. Deficits will also continue in central Manitoba, northern coastal Ontario, central Northwest Territories, and western Nunavut. Moderate to severe surpluses may emerge in northern peninsular Quebec.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On September 9th, an air quality advisory was issued in central and northeastern British Columbia as wildfire smoke raised pollution levels for the following 48 hours. The advisory was preceded by an announcement from the B.C. Wildfire Service, which reported that a fire risk was still in effect due to above average seasonal temperatures and unseasonably dry conditions. As of September 9th, roughly 220 active fires were burning in British Columbia, which officials and the service says more than 90 percent of them were caused by lightning.

Neal McLoughlin, an expert with the B.C. Wildfire Service, recently warned of worsened risk of fire activity this fall due to drought conditions in much of British Columbia. He continued to warn that these conditions could potentially continue until next spring. Though McLoughlin expects the amount of wildfires caused by lightning to decrease in the coming weeks, other environments such as dried forest and grasslands remain susceptible to wildfire.

As part of its recently passed climate resilience strategy, the city of Calgary is developing a food resilience plan to ensure communal access to food if supply chains are halted. It would be the first plan of its kind in Canada, according to food systems planner Kristi Peters. "The objective of the plan is to support a food system that's resilient against short-term shocks or crisis events … and then also to look at the longer-term stressors and really think about those Calgarians that are already experiencing vulnerability," said Peters.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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