Europe: Deficits expand in eastern Europe

22 September 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast ending in May 2025 indicates that most exceptional surpluses will diminish in western Europe and the British Isles. Severe to extreme surpluses are expected to continue throughout northern Europe. In eastern Europe, deficits of varying intensity are expected to persist.

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in:

Northeastern Poland, with deficits widespread throughout areas surrounding Warsaw. These deficits continue east into regions along the border of southern Belarus and northwestern Ukraine.
Eastern Ukraine, in most areas east of the Kremenchuts'ke Reservoir.
Romania, throughout areas near Bucharest, which spread further into Moldova, northern Serbia, southern Hungary, and eastern Croatia.
Greece, with the most intense deficits appearing throughout the Peloponnese peninsula and in the East Macedonia and Thrace region. These deficits continue north into south-central and northern Bulgaria.
Italy, throughout the provinces of Foggia and Catanzaro.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

Denmark, widespread throughout the country.
Norway, widespread throughout southern and central regions. These surpluses continue into northern Sweden and northern Finland.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through November 2024 anticipates that deficits of varying intensity will persist throughout eastern Europe. Exceptional deficits are expected to continue in northeastern Poland, southern Belarus, and central Romania. Extreme deficits are anticipated in eastern Austria and throughout Slovenia. Exceptional deficits will continue in Finland in areas north of Pielinen Lake. Severe to extreme surpluses will remain throughout Denmark.

From December through February 2025, deficits throughout eastern Europe are expected to dissipate in some regions, but remain in areas along the borders of eastern Poland, northwestern Ukraine, and southern Belarus. Exceptional deficits are expected to continue in Finland, north of the Pielinen Lake. Surpluses are expected to arise in the Czech Republic, as well as northern and western coastal regions of Norway.

The forecast for the final months – March 2025 through May 2025, expects most European countries to observe continued near-normal conditions, though some moderate surpluses will still remain in some regions of the Scandinavian Peninsula. Some pockets of moderate to severe deficit may emerge in eastern Spain and along the borders of northeastern Ukraine and southern Belarus.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Storm Boris brought catastrophic rain and floods to central Europe, which caused eight people to drown across Austria, Poland, and Romania. In the Czech Republic, four missing persons have been reported due to the storm, and displaced thousands of people across central and eastern Europe. In Austria, emergency services personnel intervened nearly 5,000 times as many residents of Lower Austria were trapped in their homes due to flooding. In response to the extreme weather, Romanian president Klaus Iohannis stated, “We are again facing the effects of climate change, which are increasingly present on the European continent, with dramatic consequences.”

In Hungary, a group of lawmakers and non-governmental representatives met on a dried-out portion of the Tisza River to bring attention to the effects of July and August’s drought. Heat waves diminished water levels in the Tisza and also damaged key crops, including corn, grain, and sunflowers. According to the European Union’s climate change monitoring service, these destructive heat waves occurred during the hottest summer recorded in the northern hemisphere.

European climate service Copernicus echoed the report of the hottest summer recorded as lakes and rivers across Europe continue to dry up. Water levels are particularly low in Poland and Bosnia. Bakir Krajinovic, a climate scientist from Bosnia’s Hydrometeorological Institute, reports that this year’s summer was the hottest that the Balkans had ever experienced according to records started 130 years ago. “Summer normally means exchange of hot days with high temperatures and then a break after five to six days with rain and thunderstorms,” said Serbian meteorologist Nedeljko Todorovic. “But this happened only in June. Practically [the] entire [months of] July and August had no rain while high temperatures persisted.”

Lake Mornos, the biggest of the four potable water supply reservoirs in Athens, Greece, recently hit its lowest point in 16 years. Lake Mornos now holds roughly 335 million cubic meters of water, a significant decrease from September 2022’s recorded level of 592 million. As the artificial lake’s water levels decreased, the remains of the submerged village of Kallio emerged, a village deluged in the late 1970s to create the reservoir. Costas Koutsoubas, deputy mayor of the surrounding Doris municipality, says he is concerned for the future after a drought has lasted for three years. “If the same weather pattern persists, if it doesn't rain enough and there's no snow, then next year we'll be talking about a dramatic situation,” he says. "We need it to pour in buckets, night and day, for five days.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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