Africa: Surplus emerges along the Sahel

23 September 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in May 2025 indicates that intense deficits will remain in northern and central regions of Africa. Surpluses of varying intensity will appear along the Sahel.

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in:

Algeria, widespread throughout the country, as well as Libya, Egypt, and northern Mali.
Central to southern Nigeria, with pockets of exceptional deficits continuing west into Benin, Togo, and southwestern Ghana.
Democratic Republic of Congo, widespread throughout the country, continuing to spread west throughout much of the Republic of Congo, Gabon, and Cameroon.
Western and eastern Ethiopia, in pockets across the area, as well as northern Somalia.
West-central Botswana, in the Kalahari Desert.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

Along the Sahel, primarily in western to southern Mali, along the northern border of Nigeria, southern to central Chad, southwestern Sudan, and isolated pockets in northern Ethiopia, within the Tigray region.
Northern Chad, throughout much of the Tibesti region.
Southwestern coastal regions of South Africa, near Cape Town.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through November 2024 exceptional deficits will remain in several regions of Algeria, Libya, northern Mali, and eastern Mauritania. Exceptional deficits are also expected to continue along coastal regions bordering the Gulf of Guinea, as well as Gabon, the Republic of Congo, and northwestern regions of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Further south, exceptional deficits will continue in southern Angola, Zambia, northern Mozambique, and northwestern Botswana. Extreme to exceptional surplus will continue along the Sahel, as well as in southern Tanzania and regions along the northern border of Mozambique. Some regions of northern Ethiopia will observe exceptional surpluses, specifically near the town of Mekele, as well as much of Eritrea.

From December through February 2025, most severe to exceptional anomalies in northern and southern Africa will dissipate. A mixture of transitional conditions and severe to extreme surpluses will remain along the Sahel and in central to southern Libya. Portions of the Horn of Africa may observe exceptional deficits, primarily in southeastern Ethiopia and in central Somalia.

The forecast for the final months – March through May 2025 – severe to extreme surpluses are expected to continue along the Sahel. Some severe deficits may emerge in northeastern Niger, southern Libya, and southern Togo. The remaining African countries will primarily observe near-normal conditions.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Floods recently devastated regions throughout the Sahel, displacing over 50,000 people in northeastern Nigeria and destroying communities in Mali, Niger, and Cameroon. On September 16th, the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) issued a warning that the situation is urgent and requires immediate action to resolve. “The situation in the Sahel and Lake Chad region is increasingly dire, as the compounding effects of conflict, displacement, and climate change take a severe toll on vulnerable populations,” said Hassane Hamadou, the regional director of the NRC’s Central and West Africa branch. “Our immediate priority is to ensure affected people across the region receive essential support such as shelter, food, and hygiene supplies.”

In Malawi, up to 40 percent of its population of 20.4 million are affected by the worst drought the region has seen in at least a century. In an effort to combat drought-related food scarcity, villagers are digging up potentially toxic yams to eat. “Our situation is very dire, we are starving,” said one local. “Sometimes the kids go for two days without any food.” Villagers must cook the wild yams for at least eight hours to ensure removal of the toxins.

In Zimbabwe, drought has stifled food security so heavily that officials have authorized a mass slaughter of 200 elephants for food. Nearly half of the population is facing starvation. The plan follows a similar decision from officials in Namibia to cull other wild animals to relieve drought-related food shortages. The plan is faced with opposition from animal rights groups and environmentalists. In Namibia, 700 wild animals, including elephants, were approved for slaughter last month and for their meat to be distributed to people facing food insecurity. Zimbabwe and Namibia are just two of the many countries across southern Africa suffering a severe drought caused by El Niño.

By 2030, nearly 118 million people living in Africa are expected to be severely affected by climate change if appropriate changes are not made. Poverty-stricken people are expected to be primarily affected, particularly ones living on the equivalent of less than $1.90 per day. In sub-Saharan Africa, the cost of adaptation is projected to reach between $30 to 50 billion annually over the next decade. "Africa has observed a warming trend over the past 60 years that has become more rapid than the global average," WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said in a statement. “This pattern of extreme weather has continued in 2024," Saulo added. "Parts of southern Africa have been gripped by damaging drought, and exceptional seasonal rainfall has caused death and devastation in East African countries, most recently in Sudan and South Sudan, exacerbating an already desperate humanitarian crisis.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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