Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Exceptional surplus continues in Myanmar, Indonesia

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Headline: Exceptional surplus continues in Myanmar, Indonesia

25 September 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in May 2025 indicates that most exceptional anomalies in both Mainland and Maritime Southeast Asia will diminish. Exceptional surpluses will persist in regions of Myanmar and Indonesia. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in: 

  • Myanmar, widespread throughout southern coastal regions of the country, along portions of the Irrawaddy River. These surpluses continue into northwestern Thailand, within the province of Mae Hong Son, and into northern Laos.

  • Indonesia, in Kalimantan near the city of Pontianak. These anomalies continue north into Malaysia, near the city of Kuching.

  • Philippines, throughout the central islands of the country. 

  • Papua New Guinea, throughout the island of New Britain. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in: 

  • North-central Myanmar, near the township of Hpakan. 

  • Indonesia, in southern Sumatra near the city of Palembang. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through November 2024 depicts that severe to exceptional surpluses will arise throughout western and southern Myanmar, which continue into northern Laos. Pockets of severe surplus are expected in northern Sumatra, central islands of the Philippines, and in regions of northwestern Kalimantan along the southern border of Sarawak. Severe surpluses are expected along southern coastal regions of Papua and Papua New Guinea. 

From December through February 2025, most surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia are expected to dissipate, becoming mostly near-normal conditions. Some surpluses of moderate to severe intensity are anticipated in southwestern coastal regions of Myanmar, which continue north into regions along the country’s western border. 

The forecast for the final months – March through May 2025, indicates that near-normal conditions will continue throughout the region. Some severe deficits may arise in central Sulawesi and western Papua. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In Myanmar, the death toll of Typhoon Yagi has risen to 419 as of September 24th – an increase from the 384 deaths and 89 missing persons estimated from a previous report. The exact number of missing persons has still not been confirmed. According to the UN, Typhoon Yagi affected at least 887,000 in Myanmar. The storm also traveled through northern Vietnam, Laos, and Thailand and caused fatal floods and landslides across the region. 

Following Typhoon Yagi, Myanmar’s Agriculture Department urged farmers to grow crops in flood-damaged areas, offering assistance to farmers able to replant their crops.  Representatives stated that if farmers have difficulties replanting rice, they can grow cash crops to generate funds for the next growing season. A support team led by the Department of Agriculture’s director general, Ye Tint Tun, visited affected farms in the Nay Pyi Taw territory and discussed crop loans, lowering costs, and addressing the needs of farmers. The department also intends to collaborate with relevant organizations to offer technical assistance. 

According to Thailand’s Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Department, nearly 26,000 households in seven provinces are still inundated due to flooding. Since August 16, a total of 153,143 families in 160 districts were affected by floods, with 46 reported casualties and 24 injuries. Director general Chaiwat Chuntirapong stated that the ministry approved a budget for flood victims, and that representatives will meet with provincial officers in late September. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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