East Asia: Deficits persist in NW, W, S China

East Asia: Deficits persist in NW, W, S China

25 September 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast ending in May 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will remain throughout northwestern China and in pockets of western and southern portions of the country. Extreme to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in west-central and northeastern regions of China. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in: 

  • Western China, with exceptional deficits widespread throughout south-central to southeastern Xinjiang and northwestern Qinghai. 

  • Southeastern China, with severe to exceptional deficits occurring in central Guizhou, Hunan, Hubei, Anhui, and Zhejiang. 

  • Southwestern Mongolia, spread throughout the Great Gobi region.

  • South Korea, throughout the majority of the country. 

  • Western China, with exceptional deficits widespread throughout the Ngari Prefecture in Tibet. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in: 

  • Central China, with exceptional surpluses appearing in northern Gansu, northern Qinghai, and in areas along the southern border of Xinjiang.

  • Northeastern China, in regions of eastern Inner Mongolia, central Jilin, and southern to eastern Heilongjiang. 

  • Eastern China, throughout the Shandong Peninsula. 

  • Northeastern Mongolia, in the subdivision of Khentii.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through November 2024 anticipates that exceptional deficits will arise in central China within regions of the Yangtze River Basin. Similarly intense deficits are expected in South Korea, pockets of southern to central Xinjiang and western Tibet. Extreme to exceptional surpluses will arise in northern Tibet, southern Xinjiang, northern Gansu, northern Qinghai, and throughout northeastern China, in southern Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Hebei, and in regions near the city of Beijing. 

From December through February 2025, exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern China in regions of southern Xinjiang and northwestern Qinghai. Western Tibet will continue to observe deficits of severe to extreme intensity, as will southern regions of Qinghai, South Korea, and much of the Yangtze River Basin. Extreme to exceptional surpluses will remain in northern Tibet, southern Xinjiang, and in regions of northeastern China from Shaanxi to Lianong and southern Inner Mongolia. 

The forecast for the final months – March through May 2025 – suggests that most exceptional deficits will resolve in China, with the exception of small areas of western Tibet. Severe to extreme deficits may continue in South Korea and in northernmost areas of Inner Mongolia and in the Zavkhan region of Mongolia. Northern and eastern portions of Tibet may observe surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity, as will parts of central Qinghai. Surpluses of moderate intensity may linger in areas along the Yellow River, as well as portions of Hebei and Liaoning. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Fengjie, a county in Chongqing, continues efforts to establish resilience against wildfires and drought in the midst of an unusual heat wave. Most areas of Fengjie are experiencing highs of 40 degrees Celsius, with the number of hot days (when the daily maximum temperature reaches or exceeds 35 degree Celsuis) reaching 68 by September 16th. The county’s emergency management bureau recently implemented precautionary measures to lessen risk of fires. "Every person must scan a QR code to register their information and turn in lighters or matches before entering the forest area," said Xiao Jianhua, the bureau's director. "We also ask them to help us prevent wildfires and safeguard the beautiful scenery."

On September 19th, over 100,000 people were evacuated from Shanghai as Typhoon Pulasan made a second landfall, bringing record-breaking rains in some regions of the city. Pulasan is the 14th typhoon to hit China this year. Over 300 millimeters of rainfall was recorded in six hours, the highest in their districts since records began. Overall, 151 of 614 weather stations recorded heavy or extreme rainfall, Xinhua added. 

On September 24th, authorities designated 310 million yuan to support disaster-relief in regions of China affected by Typhoons Bebinca, Yagi, and Pulasan. The funding was allocated by the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Emergency Management, and was distributed to several provinces, including Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Guangxi. Local emergency rescue and disaster relief are top priorities, primarily focusing on search and rescue, as well as repairing houses and relocating affected residents.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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