ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List October 2024

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST October 2024

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in July 2024 and running through June 2025 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List October 15, 2024 (pdf).

United States: Moderate to severe deficits are expected to continue throughout the Midwest until March 2025.

Canada: Pockets of exceptional deficits are expected to persist throughout the Prairie Provinces until June 2025 or longer.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: Northwestern regions of Mexico may observe pockets of severe to exceptional deficits until March 2025.

South America: Widespread severe to exceptional deficits may endure in the Amazon rainforest until March 2025.

Europe: Central Europe is predicted to experience widespread moderate to severe surpluses until March 2025.

Africa: Surpluses are expected to linger along the Sahel until June 2025 or longer.

Middle East: Exceptional deficits may remain in Yemen and Oman until December 2024 or longer.

Central Asia and Russia: Severe surpluses are expected to linger in northern Kazakhstan until March 2025.

South Asia: Widespread surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are anticipated in India until June 2025 or longer.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Central Myanmar and northern Laos are expected to observe severe to exceptional surpluses until March 2025.

East Asia: Severe to extreme deficits are expected to linger in the Yangtze River Basin until March 2025.

Australia & New Zealand: A mixture of transitional conditions and severe to extreme surpluses are expected to be present in northern Australia until December 2024.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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