Canada: Deficits persist throughout the Prairie Provinces, Central Canada

21 October 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast ending in June 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will persist across the Prairie Provinces, as well as in regions of Ontario and Newfoundland and Labrador. Exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in northern areas of Baffin Island.

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in:

Northeastern British Columbia, across the Northern Rockies region, continuing into Mackenzie County in northwestern Alberta.
Central Saskatchewan, within areas of the Boreal Shield region.
Northern coastal regions of Ontario along the Hudson Bay, as well as in the Unorganized North Cochrane District.
Northeastern Quebec, widespread in the Côte-Nord region, along the border of western Newfoundland and Labrador. Further east, exceptional deficits are expected to occur in much of Newfoundland.
Northwest Territories, widespread in areas south of Great Bear Lake. These deficits continue east into western areas of Nunavut’s Kitikmeot region.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

Southwestern Saskatchewan, near the town of Battleford.
Nunavut, in northern regions of Baffin Island.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through December 2024 indicates that exceptional deficits will persist across the Prairie Provinces, particularly in northeastern British Columbia, northwestern Alberta, and central Saskatchewan. Deficits will intensify into exceptional anomalies in northern, southern, and southeastern Ontario. Exceptional deficits will also persist in Quebec’s Côte-Nord region and in portions of Newfoundland and Labrador. Extreme to exceptional deficits are anticipated in regions south of Great Bear Lake, as well as in Nunavut’s Kitikmeot region. Exceptional surpluses are expected to occur in northern coastal regions of Baffin Island.

From January through March 2025, exceptional deficits will continue in British Columbia’s Northern Rockies region, as well as Mackenzie County in northwestern Alberta. The Boreal Shield region of Saskatchewan will continue to observe exceptional deficits, as well as northern coastal regions of Ontario and areas bordering Lake Superior. Some areas of the Cochrane District will also observe exceptional deficits. Exceptional deficits will persist in areas of Quebec’s Côte-Nord region and in central portions of Newfoundland and Labrador. In Northwest Territories, exceptional deficits will continue in areas south of Great Bear Lake. Exceptional surpluses will persist in northern coastal regions of Baffin Island. Moderate to severe surpluses will persist in the Kitikmeot and Kivalliq regions of Nunavut.

The forecast for the final months – April through June 2025 – anticipates exceptional deficits to persist in northeastern British Columbia and northwestern Alberta, as well as central Saskatchewan, east-central Manitoba, and northern coastal regions of Ontario. Further north, exceptional deficits will continue in regions near Great Bear Lake and emerge in small areas of Nunavut’s Kitikmeot region.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In the Northwest Territories (NWT), the town of Norman Wells recently declared a “humanitarian local state of emergency” as drought depletes the Mackenzie River, stifling the transport of essential supplies, such as fuel, into the community. Mayor Frank Pope urged the NWT government for financial support, stating the town is looking for C$6.6 million to get more heating fuel to the town. “Tonnes of freight, including groceries and heating fuel, are left undelivered to our region due to these low water levels, causing much of our tradable merchandise to be flown in at high cost,” said mayor Frank Pope.

The persistent drought in British Columbia could be eased by La Niña in the coming months, which experts expect would bring a colder and wetter than normal winter. The prolonged drought has caused year-round wildfires in the province, forcing some communities to ration water supplies. Local salmon populations have also diminished due to lowered water levels in rivers. Sean Fleming of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration stated that early projections show a 71% chance that a La Niña weather pattern will emerge.

$19 million has been made available to the government of Alberta through the Drought and Flood Protection Program to invest in infrastructure resilience. “We know that drought and floods can devastate public infrastructure and private property, damage the environment, disrupt our economy and put lives at risk. We’ve already funded 18 projects through the Drought and Flood Protection Program this year, but there is more work to do. That’s why we’re fast-tracking the next round of applications to protect communities across the province,” said Alberta Minister of Environment and Protected Areas Rebecca Schulz.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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