Europe: Severe, exceptional deficits persist in eastern Europe

Europe: Severe, exceptional deficits persist in eastern Europe

22 October 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast ending in June 2025 indicates that exceptional surpluses will diminish in regions of central Europe, becoming moderate to severe surpluses. Deficits of severe to exceptional intensity will continue in eastern Europe. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in: 

  • Belgium and the Netherlands, throughout the majority of both countries.

  • Denmark, widespread throughout the country.

  • Southeastern Germany and eastern regions of the Czech Republic. 

  • Throughout the majority of south-central Norway, as well as northeastern areas of Finland’s Northern Ostrobothnia region. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in: 

  • Eastern Poland, widespread in regions near Warsaw. These deficits continue northeast into areas near its northeastern border. 

  • Large portions of southeastern Hungary, western to southern Romania, and in northernmost regions of Serbia. 

  • Ukraine, extensively covering central, southern, and eastern regions of the country. These deficits continue into areas along the southern border of Belarus. 

  • Southern Spain, with the most intense anomalies appearing in coastal areas bordering the Alboran Sea and near the city of Ciudad Real. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through December 2024 indicates that moderate to severe surpluses will persist in western and northern Spain, the Netherlands, north-central Germany, and Denmark. Surpluses of equal intensity are anticipated in western coastal regions of France and in southern portions of the United Kingdom. Severe to extreme surpluses will persist throughout the Czech Republic, as well as northern areas of Austria. Several eastern European countries are expected to observe severe to extreme deficits, specifically in central to northeastern Poland, Belarus, southern Lithuania, northwestern Ukraine, and areas of Finland within the North Karelia region.

From January through March 2025, moderate to severe surpluses are expected to expand throughout central Europe, spreading through Belgium, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Germany, and Denmark. Further north, moderate to severe surpluses are expected in south-central Finland, southern coastal regions of Norway, and within the Finnish Lapland. Severe to extreme deficits are expected to resolve in eastern Europe. 

The forecast for the final months – April through June 2025 – predicts that widespread surpluses in central Europe will mostly dissipate, becoming near-normal conditions. Northern areas of the Netherlands may still observe moderate to severe surpluses, as well as portions of south-central Norway, northern Sweden, and northern Finland. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A recent audit of the European Union suggested that the impacts of its local projects are not keeping up with the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events. The audit, led by ECA member Klaus-Heiner Lehne, stated that as much as two-fifths of the EU’s local projects are having little to no impact. “Our report…raises serious concerns about the EU's ability to keep pace with the changing climate,” said Lehne, “It's a race between the accelerating impacts of climate change on our economies and societies and our efforts to adapt to these new and ever changing realities.” 

In central Europe, EU chief Ursula von der Leyen pledged $11 billion in emergency repair funding following a report of 24 deaths related to the region’s recent floods. The affected countries also suffered enormous damage to infrastructure and housing, including Poland, Austria, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia. "Here we say it's 100% European money, no co-financing," said von der Leyen. "These are extraordinary times, and extraordinary times need extraordinary measures."

On October 9th, remnants of Hurricane Kirk hit several western European countries, including Spain, Portugal, and France. Over 30 areas were at risk of flooding as the storm hit regions with grounds already saturated from previous rainfall. The storm left 400,000 people without power in northern Portugal. “We have to expect flooding," said France’s Minister of Energy and Green Transition Agnès Pannier-Runacher. "These episodes are likely to repeat themselves. Climate change is having a concrete impact on our daily lives." 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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