Africa: Surpluses emerge along the Sahel

Africa: Surpluses emerge along the Sahel

22 October 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast ending in June 2025 indicates that widespread exceptional deficits will subside in several regions of Africa, but remain in some central, eastern, and northern regions of the continent. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are expected to emerge along the Sahel. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in: 

  • Much of eastern Mauritania, northern Mali, and southwestern to central Algeria. These deficits will also be present in northern Morocco and central West Sahara. 

  • Libya, widespread throughout the country, continuing into west-central, northern, and eastern Egypt, as well as northwestern Sudan. 

  • In much of the Horn of Africa, specifically in northern and eastern Somalia and eastern Ethiopia.

  • Along southern coastal regions of Togo, Benin, and southwestern Nigeria bordering the Gulf of Guinea. 

  • Much of the Democratic Republic of Congo, continuing west into the Republic of Congo, Gabon, and Equatorial Guinea. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in: 

  • Western coastal regions of Guinea and Sierra Leone. 

  • Southern Mali, spreading into Burkina Faso, southern Niger, northwestern and southern Chad, and southwestern Sudan. 

  • Northern Ethiopia, in the Tigray region. 

  • Southern South Africa, near the city of Cape Town. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through December 2024 indicates that widespread exceptional deficits across Africa will mostly subside, though will remain across much of Algeria. Severe deficits are anticipated in northern Mali, eastern Niger, coastal regions along the Gulf of Guinea, and northern Democratic Republic of Congo. Surpluses are expected to continue along the Sahel, in Guinea, Sierra Leone, southern Mali, northern Nigeria, southern Chad, and southwestern Sudan. 

From January through March 2025, exceptional deficits are expected to resolve in Algeria, becoming mostly abnormal deficits. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in regions of southern and central Somalia, as well as southeastern Ethiopia. Surpluses of severe to extreme intensity are expected to persist along the Sahel. Transitional conditions are anticipated in regions along the northern border of Nigeria and in southern Mali. 

The forecast for the final months – April through June 2025 – surpluses of extreme to exceptional intensity are expected to persist along the Sahel. Some severe to exceptional deficits will appear in northern Niger, southeastern Libya, southern Egypt, and northeastern Sudan. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Over four million people have been affected by ongoing floods in 14 African countries, including several areas of the Sahel. At least 1,000 flood-related deaths have been confirmed in Cameroon, Nigeria, Chad, Ghana, Liberia, Mali, and Niger. The floods occurring in these countries are reportedly the worst to happen in nearly 30 years, and have exacerbated existing problems in affected regions, including poverty, food insecurity, and conflict. The rainfall was anticipated to end in September, but newer forecasts predict that it will continue through November.  

Over 27 million people in southern Africa are facing food shortages as the region experiences its worst drought in a century. Several African nations, including Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe all recently declared a state of national disaster as the drought continues to kill livestock and crops. “A historic drought – the worst food crisis yet – has devastated more than 27 million lives across the region,” said World Food Programme spokesperson Tomson Phiri. “October in Southern Africa marks the start of the lean season, and each month is expected to be worse than the previous one until harvests next year in March and April.” 

Zambians are facing daily challenges to find and afford electricity as a climate-related energy crisis affects the country. Zambia’s Kariba dam, which generates over 80% of the country’s electricity, is left with insufficient water to run its turbines due to drought. The dam’s water levels are so low that only one of the six turbines on Zambia’s portion of the dam is able to operate, generating less than 10% of its normal output. 

Cattle farmers in Kenya have started to raise camels in lieu of cows due to the region’s drought. Camels offer several advantages over cattle during times of drought, including their ability to survive on lesser quantities of water, as well as their resilience to extreme temperatures. After a drought in 2020 killed much of the cattle in Laikipia County, local farmers acquired camels to adapt to the changing environment. “They feed on shrubs and can survive in harsher conditions,” said local Abdullahi Mohamud. “When the pasture dries out, cattle die.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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