Middle East: Southern countries endure exceptional deficits

Middle East: Southern countries endure exceptional deficits

22 October 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast ending in June 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in southern regions of the Middle East, as well as in several portions of central and eastern Iran. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in: 

  • Saudi Arabia, with the most intense anomalies occurring in eastern regions of the Makkah Province, as well as the Al Udeid and Al Ahsa regions.

  • Yemen, throughout central to eastern portions of the country, which continue into southwestern to central Oman. 

  • Iran, throughout the Sistan and Baluchestan Province and near the city of Shiraz. Iraq will also experience exceptional deficits near the city of Nasiriyah. 

  • Southeastern Azerbaijan, near the city of Shirvan. Exceptional deficits will also occur in western Georgia, near the city of Kutaisi.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in: 

  • Southwestern Saudi Arabia, in several areas of the Aseer Province. 

  • Western Yemen, in areas west of the city of Sana'a. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN

The forecast through December 2024, exceptional deficits are expected to continue in western portions of Turkey, southern Iraq, eastern Iran, and across much of eastern Yemen and Oman. These deficits are also expected to occur in southeastern areas of Saudi Arabia in the Al Udeid region. Surpluses of moderate to severe intensity are anticipated in areas along the Wadi Bisha River, as well as in western coastal regions of Yemen. 

From January through March 2025, much of the Middle East is expected to observe near-normal conditions and abnormal deficits, though exceptional deficits will persist in much of Yemen. Small areas near the Wadi Bisha River in Saudi Arabia will experience severe to extreme surpluses. 

The forecast for the final months – April through June 2025 – predicts that most of the Middle East will observe near-normal conditions and abnormal deficits. Pockets of exceptional deficits are anticipated near the Uruq Bani Ma'arid National Reserve, as well as in coastal regions of southeastern Yemen and along the southern coast of Oman. Southernmost regions of Iraq may experience severe to extreme deficits. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In a recent conference, Saudi Minister of Environment, Water and Agriculture Abdulrahman Alfadley highlighted the importance of regional cooperation to improve food and water security throughout the Middle East and northern Africa. The initiative also marks the first regional alliance to increase resilience against climate change in the area. Aldadley stated this initiative, titled the Middle East Green Initiative, will be a significant step toward improving issues regarding desertification and preparation for extreme weather induced by climate change. 

In northern Turkey, the Kızılırmak Delta Nature Reserve, also known as the “Bird Paradise,” is recovering from a devastating summer as fall rains arrive. The Qizil Irmak river, one of the largest in Turkey with an area of 56 thousand hectares, saw major decreases in water levels and subsequent negative effects on local bird populations. A combination of high temperatures and low water levels diminished bird populations in regions near the Balk, Ozun, Geci, Tatli, Alintili, Bareli, Gerenk, Liman, Tuzli, and Solukli lakes. Autumn rains recently fell in the affected areas and persisted for a week, replenishing some dried regions. 

Electricity shortages continue to increase as drought lingers in Iraq, Turkey, and Afghanistan. The Tigris and Euphrates rivers, which generate a significant amount of the region’s electricity, have continuously suffered from drought. Benjamin Paul, director of the Climate Diplomacy and Security Program at the German think tank Adelphi, described it as “one of the fastest drying regions in the world.” The decline in hydroelectricity production is expected to continue as rainfall and snowfall decreases in the area due to climate change, with some experts anticipating a 30 to 40 percent decrease by the end of the century. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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