East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, Yangtze River Basin

East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, Yangtze River Basin

28 October 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast ending in June 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern China, southwestern Mongolia, and in the Yangtze River Basin. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are expected to appear in western, southern, and northeastern regions of China. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in: 

  • Northwestern China, in southern regions of Xinjiang and western Gansu. Westernmost portions of Tibet in the Ngari Prefecture will also experience exceptional deficits. 

  • Eastern to central China, throughout much of the Yangtze River Basin. 

  • Northeastern China, in eastern areas of Inner Mongolia near the city of Hulunbuir. 

  • Western Mongolia, within the Khovd Province. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in: 

  • Western China, in northern regions of Tibet’s Nagqu Prefecture.

  • Northeastern China, near the cities of Qiqihar, Harbin, and Changchun, as well as in the Lionang and Shandong Peninsulas. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through December 2024 indicates that exceptional deficits will continue in the Yangtze River Basin, southern Xinjiang, and near the city of Hulunbuir. Regions of western Tibet, in the Ngari Prefecture, will experience deficits of severe to exceptional intensity. Severe to exceptional surpluses will continue in northern and southwestern Tibet, western Gansu, and in northeastern regions of China, across eastern Inner Mongolia, the Shandong Peninsula, and in western Jilin. 

From January through March 2025, exceptional deficits are expected to continue in the Yangtze River Basin, as well as in regions of northeastern China near the city of Hulunbuir. Severe to exceptional surpluses will persist in northern regions of Tibet, western Gansu, and eastern Qinghai. Surpluses are expected to continue northeast into eastern regions of Inner Mongolia and near the city of Beijing. 

The forecast for the final months – April through June 2025 – near-normal conditions are predicted for much of East Asia. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected to continue in northern and eastern Tibet, as well as in the Shandong Peninsula. Some southeastern regions of Xinjiang and central regions of Sichuan may observe small pockets of severe to extreme deficit. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In South Korea, cabbage production has been diminished by extreme heat and drought, causing prices to reach unprecedented highs. The "Cabbage Supply and Demand Trends" report conducted by the Korea Price Association estimates that the price of cabbage is expected to exceed 26.12 yuan, the crop’s highest recorded price. The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs have attempted to offset the high prices with providing shipment subsidies and consumer discounts. 

Water levels of Poyang Lake, China’s largest freshwater lake, have reached extreme levels of drought due to lack of rainfall.  As water levels reached below 8 meters, Jiangxi Provincial Hydrological Monitoring Center declared an “extreme” drought warning. Experts predict that the water level of Poyang Lake will continue to diminish. 

In a recent report, officials found that natural disasters including flooding, drought, and high temperatures cost China the equivalent of $12.83 billion USD between January and June 2024. Natural disasters also reportedly affected nearly 33 million people. The 33 million figure includes 322 who died or are missing; 856,000 people that were displaced; 23,000 houses that were destroyed; and roughly 3.17 million hectares of crops that were damaged.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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