South Asia: Surpluses expand throughout India and Nepal

South Asia: Surpluses expand throughout India and Nepal

28 October 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast ending in June 2025 indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist throughout India and Nepal. Exceptional deficits will expand throughout regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in: 

  • South-central India, throughout Karnataka and central Maharashtra. 

  • North-central India, throughout central and eastern Rajasthan and western coastal regions of Gujarat. 

  • Nepal, widespread throughout the country. 

  • Pakistan, occurring in eastern Balochistan and continuing north into regions near Kalat and Quetta.

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in:

  • Western Pakistan, in northeastern regions of the Balochistan province near Hanna Lake. 

  • Southwestern Afghanistan, in southern areas of the Nimruz Province, continuing northeast into the Helmand Province. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through December 2024 indicates that surpluses will remain widespread throughout much of India, with the most intense anomalies appearing in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Rajasthan, and New Bengal. Much of Nepal will experience severe to extreme surpluses. Exceptional deficits will arise in much of Pakistan’s Balochistan province and in pockets of southwestern Afghanistan. 

From January through March 2025, extreme to exceptional surpluses will endure in Rajasthan and Maharashtra, as well as in West Bengal and Jharkhand. Central Nepal can expect pockets of extreme to exceptional surpluses to remain. Pockets of extreme surplus will appear in isolated regions of southern and central Pakistan. Transitional conditions will arise throughout Gujarat. 

The forecast for the final months – April through June 2025 – surpluses may continue in eastern Rajasthan, eastern Maharashtra, and western coastal regions of Gujarat. Exceptional deficits may arise in southern Pakistan. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On October 22nd, Bengaluru, India’s tech capital, experienced flooding brought on by heavy rain. The deluge caused a local building to collapse, as well as covered roads, fell trees, and carried away cars. Officials reported that 241 millimeters of rain was recorded the previous week, which is over twice as much as normal. 

On October 16th, schools and government offices in southern India closed due to flooding triggered by monsoon rains. The cities most affected were Chennai and Bengaluru, the country’s industrial and information technology hubs. Power was cut and flights were canceled due to the storm. Monsoons have mostly shifted from the north to the northeast, bringing heavy rain to coastal Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and southern Karnataka. At least 33 people died in September due to rain and flooding. 

India is expected to invest nearly $300 million in water security and flood resilience measures over the next two years. These funds will be used to build drains and expand lakes in seven cities, including Mumbai, Chennai, and Bengaluru. The country’s recent monsoon season caused widespread flooding in several cities in recent years. In July, over 300 millimeters of rain fell in Mumbai over six hours. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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