Europe: Deficits continue across S and E Europe

25 November 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast 12-month period ending July 2025 indicates that severe to exceptional surpluses will mostly resolve in Western Europe, but emerge in northern countries. Severe to exceptional deficits will persist in Southern and Eastern Europe.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

Norway, widespread throughout the Western, Southern, and Northern regions of the country.
Northern Sweden, in much of the Västerbottens and Norrbotten counties. These surpluses continue into north-central Finland, within Northern Ostrobothnia.
Eastern coastal areas of Spain, along the coasts of the Castellon and Tarragona regions.
Czechia, spreading in areas near the cities of Ostrava and Brno, as well as in northernmost regions of Austria, north of Vienna.

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in:

Much of the Balkan Peninsula and surrounding countries, including the majority of Greece, eastern North Macedonia, Serbia, western Romania, Bulgaria, and southern Hungary.
Northeastern Poland, widespread throughout areas near Warsaw.
Ukraine, throughout west-central to northwestern areas of the country. These deficits continue into Belarus, with the most intense anomalies appearing along the country’s southern border.
Eastern Finland, throughout regions surrounding the Pielinen.
Western coastal regions of Portugal, widespread throughout areas near the city of Lisbon.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through January 2025 predicts extreme to exceptional surpluses to continue in eastern coastal regions of Spain, along the coasts of Castellon and Tarragona. Severe to extreme surpluses are also anticipated in northernmost Austria and eastern Czechia. Further north, surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity will persist in south-central Norway. Moderate to severe surpluses will continue in northern Norway and northern Sweden. Much of southern Europe will observe severe to extreme deficits, with the most intense anomalies appearing in northeastern Poland, southern Lithuania, northwestern Ukraine, and southwestern Belarus. Western Romania is expected to endure severe to extreme deficits, as will central Bulgaria, and the Balkan Peninsula.

From February through April 2025, moderate to severe surpluses will continue throughout Norway, Sweden, and Finland. Exceptional deficits will continue throughout the Balkan Peninsula and in surrounding countries, as well as in eastern Finland near the Pienlinen. Extreme to exceptional deficits will emerge in southern Portugal and in Sardinia. Moderate to severe deficits will persist in northwestern Ukraine, eastern Poland, and southern Belarus.

The forecast for the final months – May through July 2025 – anticipates that widespread surpluses in northern Europe will mostly diminish, though will continue in regions of south-central Norway and northern Sweden. Exceptional deficits are expected to linger in countries along the Balkan Peninsula.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Severe storms caused flooding and landslides in southwestern Norway, which collapsed bridges and roads to the town of Odda, leaving the community isolated. No injuries were reported, but several buildings, including the Hotel Ullensvang's basement, were flooded, destroying the antiques and art it held. The storm moved on to Sweden by Friday afternoon, bringing strong winds, power outages affecting over 12,000 households, and disrupting train services. This follows devastating floods in Spain earlier in the week, which claimed over 200 lives.

Spain recorded its rainiest October since records began, which culminated in the deadly floods near Valencia, which killed over 220 people and left 78 missing. 48 bodies are yet to be identified due to the catastrophic flooding. In Turis, a year's worth of rain fell in one day, which broke the national record for rainfall in an hour; the amount equalled 184.6 millimeters. Scientists noted that climate change was a factor in the exacerbation of the storm.

Saffron production in northern Greece is under threat due to intense drought in the country. Saffron is one of the country’s most valuable crops, however, farmers in Kozani face decreasing crop yields, as some fields have produced just a fraction of the typical harvest. The region has experienced its driest October in 15 years, following Greece’s warmest winter and summer on record.

A recent study by the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) found that human-induced climate change significantly intensified the extreme drought experienced in Central and Southern Europe during the summer of 2022. The drought affected 29% of the region as soil moisture levels dropped to their lowest since 1960. The equivalent of 120 million swimming pools of water was missing from the soil. Additionally, approximately 31% of the soil moisture deficit and 38% of the drought's spatial extent were attributed to climate change. The drought also caused water shortages, reduction of hydropower output, hindered river navigation, and killed 15% of potential crop yields of maize, sunflower, and soybeans.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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