Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses to persist in N Mainland SE Asia

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses to persist in N Mainland SE Asia

25 November 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in July 2025 indicates that severe to exceptional surpluses will persist in northern regions of Mainland Southeast Asia. Most areas of Maritime Southeast Asia will observe near-normal conditions. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Myanmar, spreading throughout the Matupi District and into the state of Shan. 

  • Northern Laos, primarily throughout the Xamneua, Xon, and Oudomxay provinces, as well as much of the Nam Ha National Bio-Diversity Conservation Area.

  • Northern Vietnam, with the most intense anomalies appearing in areas surrounding the city of Hanoi. 

  • Philippines, with the most intense anomalies appearing in southern coastal regions of the province of Negros Oriental.

Moderate to severe deficits are anticipated in: 

  • Central to southern Thailand, in areas near the provinces of Chaiyaphum and Chanthaburi.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through January 2025 expects moderate to severe surpluses to continue in western to central Myanmar and northwestern Thailand. Moderate to severe surpluses will emerge in central Vietnam. Isolated pockets of moderate surpluses will persist in Maritime Southeast Asia, particularly in northern Sumatra, northern Philippines, west-central Sulawesi, and western areas of Papua. Exceptional deficits are expected to continue in central and southern Thailand. 

From February through April 2025, pockets of exceptional deficit will persist in Thailand. Severe to extreme surpluses will persist in western and central Myanmar, northern Thailand and northern Laos. Southern and western coastal regions of the island of Luzon in the Philippines will observe moderate to severe surpluses. 

The forecast for the final months – May through July 2025 – indicates that severe to extreme deficits in Thailand will resolve. The majority of the region will continue to observe near-normal conditions.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN

The forecast through January 2025 expects moderate to severe surpluses to continue in western to central Myanmar and northwestern Thailand. Moderate to severe surpluses will emerge in central Vietnam. Isolated pockets of moderate surpluses will persist in Maritime Southeast Asia, particularly in northern Sumatra, northern Philippines, west-central Sulawesi, and western areas of Papua. Exceptional deficits are expected to continue in central and southern Thailand. 

From February through April 2025, pockets of exceptional deficit will persist in Thailand. Severe to extreme surpluses will persist in western and central Myanmar, northern Thailand and northern Laos. Southern and western coastal regions of the island of Luzon in the Philippines will observe moderate to severe surpluses. 

The forecast for the final months – May through July 2025 – indicates that severe to extreme deficits in Thailand will resolve. The majority of the region will continue to observe near-normal conditions.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On November 15th, Typhoon Usagi struck the northern Philippines, causing destructive flooding, power outages, and widespread displacement. It also caused several major bridges to collapse, including one in the Cagayan province. Usagi was the fifth major storm that occurred in less than a month, following Typhoon Toraji, which caused similar damage. These consecutive storms have caused at least 160 deaths and over 9 million citizens to be displaced, as well as extensive damage to infrastructure and farmland.

In late September, Typhoon Yagi caused flooding that affected over 1 million people in 70 towns across Myanmar. As of November 5th, over 30,000 citizens are still in urgent need of aid. In Loikaw, Kayah's capital, over 16,000 homes were damaged, with some neighborhoods still submerged. Residents, including over 200 people seeking refuge in religious buildings, still remain in unsanitary conditions as the dirty floodwater remains. Aid has been scarce, especially in remote villages, as reports that armed conflict in the region has stifled assistance to victims.

Widespread flooding occurred in central Vietnam on November 4th due to heavy rains. The rain particularly affected Cu Lao Cham Island in Quang Nam's Hoi An Town, which received 100 mm of rain in two hours. The storm led to flooding in local fields and caused traffic and school disruptions. In the Quang Binh Province, communities were isolated by flooding and landslides, with 77 families ultimately being evacuated. 

Thailand's Commerce Ministry placed a temporary ban on raw palm oil exports following a production drop caused by drought and plant diseases. To stabilize the market and protect both farmers and consumers, the ministry is attempting to lower prices and offer promotions. Other short-term solutions to be implemented by the ministry include potentially reducing its use in biodiesel production to conserve for household consumption. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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