Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Surpluses emerge in C, S Mexico

26 November 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in July 2025 indicates that northwestern Mexico will continue to experience exceptional deficits, while central and southern areas of the country will observe severe to exceptional surpluses. Much of Central America can anticipate moderate to severe surplus.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in:

North-central Mexico, within central portions of the state of Zacatecas.
Southwestern Mexico, in southern coastal regions of Guerrero and Oaxaca.
Northeastern Guatemala, throughout the Flores and Melchor de Mencos regions, as well as in much of western and northern Belize.
East-central Honduras, in central regions of the department of Olancho, as well as in eastern Nicaragua, in central areas of Puerto Cabezas.
Along the northeastern coast of Costa Rica and southern coast of Panama.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are anticipated in:

Northwestern Mexico, in western coastal regions and eastern areas of Sonoma.
Baja California Sur, throughout much of the territory.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through January 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will continue in central to southeastern portions of Sonora and western Chihuahua. Extreme to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in southern Guerrero and in southern to eastern Oaxaca. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected to endure in the Yucatan Peninsula, southeastern Honduras, western Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama.

From February through April 2025, exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in southwestern coastal regions of Mexico, specifically in southern Oaxaca and Guerrero. Severe to extreme deficits are expected to continue in northwestern Mexico in isolated regions of southwestern coastal regions and southeastern Sonora. Exceptional surpluses will continue nearby, spreading through northern and eastern Oaxaca, and into western portions of Chiapas. Moderate to severe surpluses will persist in the Yucatan Peninsula, northern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and across much of Costa Rica and Panama.

The forecast for the final months – May through July 2025 – predicts that exceptional deficits, surpluses, and transitional conditions along Mexico’s southwestern coast bordering the Pacific Ocean will resolve. Some moderate surpluses will appear in northwestern Mexico and southwestern coastal regions of the country, as well as in isolated regions of northern Guatemala, eastern Honduras, and Costa Rica.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times

IMPACTS
Tropical Storm Sara affected over 47,000 people in Honduras, causing one death and prompting at least 90 rescues. Rain fell overnight and continued in the city of San Pedro Sula, where the storm destroyed roadways and cut off access to communities. The storm is estimated to have dropped at least 20 inches of rain, and is the third named storm in November which was catalyzed by climate change related water temperature increases.

A recent study linked extreme weather to undocumented migration and return between Mexico and the United States. Research, presented in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, suggested that more migrants would risk their lives crossing the border as climate change worsens droughts, floods, and other destructive weather events. Reservoirs in Mexico have become depleted as water scarcity continues to affect agricultural production and local livelihoods.

Mexico City recently avoided a "Day Zero" water crisis due to timely rainfall and emergency measures taken by authorities. The city saw its reservoirs reach critical lows, leaving many areas with acute water shortages and reliance on tanker deliveries. The crisis spotlighted the city’s aging water infrastructure, with endemic leaks causing 32% supply losses and over-reliance on strained groundwater aquifers. Authorities responded by reactivating wells, promoting conservation, and subsidizing water bills. However, some poorer neighborhoods still were left struggling.

On November 9th, an agreement regarding a new measure of the International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC) was reached, which will ensure more water supplies from Mexico to the United States. The agreement will provide Mexico with "tools and flexibility to deliver water earlier in the five-year cycle," a statement by the IBWC said. The agreement approved transfer of ownership at the Amistad and Falcon Reservoirs, as well as permit Mexico to receive potential credit for deliveries made earlier in the cycle.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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