United States: Deficits continue in SW, NE, midwest states

18 December 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in August 2025 indicates that widespread deficits of varying intensity will expand throughout southwestern, northeastern, and midwestern states. Surpluses are expected to continue in southern Florida and in several regions of Alaska.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

Northeastern, central, and southern California, appearing in eastern areas of the Shasta Cascades, Sierra Nevada, throughout San Bernardino County, and in the Joshua Tree National Park. These deficits continue into south-central and southern Nevada, in Lincoln County, Nye County, and near Las Vegas.
Western New Mexico, near the Gila National Forest, and in several regions of eastern and southeastern Arizona.
Southeastern Idaho, near the Caribou-Targhee National Forest, continuing west into areas along the western border of Colorado.
Southern Texas, throughout regions near Austin and Houston. The most intense anomalies appear in areas north of Corpus Christi.
Areas near the borders of eastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia. Further north, extreme to exceptional deficits are anticipated in eastern coastal regions of Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. Exceptional deficits will also occur in southeastern New Hampshire and in areas along the southwestern border of Vermont.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in:

Central to southern Florida, throughout Polk County and continuing into most areas further south, expanding into the Everglades National Park.
Alaska, with the most intense anomalies appearing in northern coastal regions near the city of Utqiagvik, the Seward Peninsula, and in the Denali National Park.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through February 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will be prevalent in several areas of the Continental U.S., including western North Dakota, northeastern Montana, central and southeastern Idaho, and western to southeastern Wyoming. These deficits continue further south into central Utah and central Colorado. Pockets of severe to extreme deficits are expected in eastern Arizona, western to southern New Mexico and western Texas. In the southeast, severe to extreme deficits will emerge in eastern Arkansas, northeastern Alabama, central Tennessee, and eastern coastal regions of North Carolina. Widespread exceptional deficits are expected to occur in most coastal regions of northeastern state bordering the North Atlantic Ocean, as well as in areas further inland, including much of New Hampshire, southern to central Vermont, eastern Ohio, southwestern Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

From March through May 2025, severe to exceptional deficits will persist in western Montana, western Colorado, and south-central Utah. Extreme to exceptional deficits will expand in eastern to southeastern Arizona and western to southwestern New Mexico. East-central Texas will observe severe deficits in areas near the cities of Austin and Houston. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected throughout central and southern Florida, as well as in northwestern, central, and northern regions of Alaska.

The forecast for the final months – June through August 2025 – anticipate that most of the Continental U.S. will observe near-normal conditions throughout most of the country, as well as abnormal deficits in western to central states. Isolated pockets of severe to extreme deficits are expected in northeastern California, western Nevada, and in several small areas of Arizona. Severe to extreme surpluses may occur in central and northern Alaska.

IMPACTS
A water shortage affecting West Texas has dried up the Pecos River and stifled production of citrus crops. As a result, Texan authorities and oil companies are exploring ways to recycle wastewater from oil production to offset water scarcity. “We’re in the worst shape I’ve seen water-wise going into winter and spring,” said one local farmer. “Typically, during the summer, there’s a storm event that’ll bring those levels up, but that didn’t happen this year.” Local farmers recently cut back acreage, laid off workers, or shifted to more drought-resilient crops. Earlier this year, these conditions forced Texas’ only sugar mill to shut down, which resulted in a loss of almost 500 jobs.

California water agencies recently released projections for the coming year, predicting that 5% of water will be allocated to agricultural and municipal users in 2025. These estimates are typically low and are based on several factors, including the current condition of reservoirs, potential soil runoff, and amount of precipitation during the winter and spring. “Based on long-range forecasts and the possibility of a La Niña year, the State Water Project is planning for a dry 2025 punctuated by extreme storms like we’ve seen in late November,” department director Karla Nemeth recently stated. “We need to prepare for any scenario, and this early in the season we need to take a conservative approach to managing our water supply. Our wettest months of the season are still to come.” Experts argue that the state needs to increase its storage capacity to adequately manage water during increasingly unpredictable precipitation cycles caused by climate change.

An analysis of recent satellite data obtained from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) showed that the 2024 wildfire season brought record-breaking devastation across the Americas, with the worst affected areas being western U.S. and Canada. Both countries were simultaneously stricken with persistent drought. By early December, over 8.4 million acres were burned. Canada's season began intensely, as massive fires in British Columbia caused evacuations in the provinces as early as May. The report highlights the increase in scale and intensity of wildfire seasons throughout the regions.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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