East Asia: Deficits persist in NW, W China, Yangtze River Basin

26 December 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in August 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will lessen in size, but still affect northwestern and western regions of China and much of the Yangtze River Basin. Surpluses of severe to exceptional intensity are expected to continue in northeastern China and in areas of Tibet.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in:

Northwestern China, in southeastern Xinjiang and western Gansu. These deficits will continue into western areas of Inner Mongolia.
Westernmost China, in western regions of Tibet’s Ngari Prefecture.
Eastern to central China, spanning much of the Yangtze River Basin.
Northeastern China, in the Hulunbuir region of Inner Mongolia.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in:

Western China, in northern areas of the Ngari Prefecture in Tibet and near the southern border of Xinjiang.
Northern China, in areas northeast of Qinghai Lake.
Northeastern China, appearing in Shanxi and continuing north into central and eastern Inner Mongolia.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through February 2025 indicates that extreme to exceptional deficits will remain in much of the Yangtze River Basin and western and eastern Tibet. Extreme to exceptional surplus is expected in northern and southern portions of Tibet, eastern Qinghai, and central Gansu. These surpluses continue north into Shanxi and spread northeast into central to eastern Inner Mongolia and Jilin. Further west, northern, eastern, and central Xinjiang can expect surpluses of extreme to exceptional intensity to remain. Severe to extreme deficits may arise in western and west-central Mongolia.

From March through May 2025, severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to continue in northern, eastern, and southwestern Tibet. These surpluses will continue east into eastern Qinghai and into western Inner Mongolia. Severe deficits will remain in areas of the Yangtze River Basin. Exceptional deficits may continue in westernmost Tibet.

The forecast for the final months – June through August 2025 – indicates that exceptional surpluses in southern Xinjiang and northern Tibet will diminish, with some areas observing isolated extreme to exceptional deficits. These deficits may also emerge in western Inner Mongolia. Moderate surpluses may continue near eastern Inner Mongolia and in western areas of the Shandong Peninsula.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
According to Wang Daoxi, Vice Minister of Water Resources of China, China’s South-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP) now supplies water to 45 cities. Daoxi gave the report in a recent news conference organized by the State Council Information Office. "The project's positive influence has progressively extended beyond medium and large cities to rural areas, leading to an increasing multitude of individuals reaping its benefits year after another," he said. China’s South-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP) was designed to address water shortages in the north by diverting water south across three routes – Eastern, Middle, and Western. The Eastern and Middle routes were constructed in 2013 and 2014, which brought water to 185 million people. However, the Western Route remains in planning stages due to concerns about its impact on neighboring countries, including India. The project’s $71 billion cost has already created financial, social, and environmental challenges, as well as displaced 440,000 people and reduced water quality in nearby ecosystems.

Scientists in China are working to increase climate resilience in potato crops in an effort to combat climate-induced food insecurity. Potatoes are highly vulnerable to rising temperatures, droughts, and diseases, with researchers at Beijing's International Potato Center (CIP) concluding that these factors could potentially decrease yields by over 50%. CIP is collaborating to develop heat-tolerant potato varieties as farmers already experience extreme weather. Additionally, researchers suggested planting earlier than usual or relocating to higher altitudes within the next decade to mitigate climate impacts.

Reports from the National Climate Center indicate that China experienced its warmest autumn on record in 2024, with an average temperature increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius. Sixteen provinces in China reported the hottest temperatures since records began in 1961. This follows the hottest August and a summer of intense weather, including heat waves, torrential downpours, and droughts. These conditions affected major regions such as Sichuan and the Yangtze River basin. Guangzhou observed a record 240 days of average temperatures above 22°C.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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