Canada: Deficits remain in Prairie Provinces, central Canada

22 January 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in September 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will remain in regions of Central Canada, the Prairie Provinces, and some of the Northern Territories.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

Northeastern British Columbia, in the Northern Rockies region of the province. These deficits continue into northwestern areas of Alberta, particularly MacKenzie County.
Saskatchewan, across the province’s Boreal Forest region. These deficits also occur further east in central and northeastern Manitoba, in areas north and northeast of Lake Winnipeg.
Ontario, in northern and southern coastal regions, as well as in western portions of the Unorganized Kenora District.
Quebec, in northern portions of Nord-du-Quebec near the Rivere-Koksoak Lake, as well as Newfoundland, in regions east of the Smallwood Reservoir, and in southern areas of the Labrador Inuit Lands.
Northwest Territories, in regions south of Great Bear Lake and west of Great Slave Lake. These deficits persist into western Nunavut, in the Kitikmeot region. Nova Scotia can also expect widespread exceptional deficits.

Moderate to severe surpluses are anticipated in:

Central British Columbia, in areas south of Williston Lake.
Southwestern Saskatchewan, in areas west of the city of Saskatoon.
Central Northwestern Territories, in central territories of the North Slave Region.
Nunavut, widespread throughout the Kivalliq and Qikiqtaaluk regions.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through March 2025 indicates that severe to exceptional deficits will persist throughout northeastern British Columbia, northwestern and south-central Alberta, and north-central Saskatchewan. These deficits continue east into north-central Manitoba, as well as northern and southern coastal regions of Ontario. Further north, exceptional deficits will persist in areas south of Great Bear Lake, as well as western Nunavut. Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in most remaining areas of Nunavut. Central to northeastern Ontario will observe moderate to extreme surpluses, which spread further east into south-central Quebec and southeastern Newfoundland and Labrador. Central Yukon will observe moderate to severe surplus.

From April through June 2025, indicates that exceptional deficits will continue in northeastern British Columbia and northwestern Alberta. Exceptional deficits will also continue in north-central Saskatchewan, north-central Manitoba, and northern coastal areas of Ontario. Further north, regions south of Great Bear Lake in Northwest Territories will continue to observe exceptional deficits. Western portions of Nunavut’s Kitikmeot Region will also observe exceptional deficits. Much of Nunavut will observe widespread moderate to severe surpluses, as will southeastern Northwest Territories and northern Quebec. Some moderate to severe surpluses anomalies will persist in central British Columbia, central Alberta, and southern Saskatchewan.

The forecast for the final months – July through September 2025 – indicates that exceptional deficits may resolve in Ontario and Manitoba. Deficits in north-central Saskatchewan are also expected to decrease in size. Isolated pockets of exceptional deficits are expected to linger in northeastern British Columbia, northwestern Alberta, Northwest Territories, and western Nunavut. Much of the remaining areas of Nunavut will continue to observe moderate to severe surplus.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In 2024, Vancouver recorded its wettest year since 1999, reporting over 1,367 millimeters of precipitation. However, most of the rainfall affected coastal areas and did not negate the ongoing multi-year drought affecting other areas of British Columbia. The drought, which has persisted since 2022, is not expected to resolve soon, as forecasts predict near-average precipitation for most of the province and continued dryness in the northeast. Parts of northeastern British Columbia, such as Chetwynd and Fort Nelson, faced one of their driest years on record, which contributed to intense wildfire activity earlier last year.

Scientists stated that 2024 was Canada’s hottest year on record, with temperatures climbing to 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels. Climate modeling agencies, including Copernicus, NOAA, and Berkeley Earth, verified the country’s record-breaking heat. Additionally, Robert Rohde of Berkeley Earth stated that Canada’s annual average temperature in 2024 slightly surpassed the previous records set in 2010 and 2023. This marks the first year to surpass the 1.5°C threshold outlined in the Paris Agreement.

A recent study confirmed that multi-year droughts are becoming more intense, frequent, and prolonged, which will negatively impact ecosystems and lead to irreversible environmental changes. In Canada, British Columbia and Saskatchewan are already experiencing water shortages. "We've always assumed we had plentiful water, but recent years in British Columbia, Saskatchewan and even parts of the North have shown that we don't have secure reliable water supplies all the time," said John Pomeroy, professor at the University of Saskatchewan. “Snow droughts” are also present in northern areas. The loss of glaciers, predicted within 10–20 years, will exacerbate the water scarcity.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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