Europe: E Europe to endure exceptional deficits

Europe: E Europe to endure exceptional deficits

22 January 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in September 2025 indicates that surpluses in western Europe will mostly diminish, while exceptional deficits in eastern Europe will persist.  

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in: 

  • Eastern Poland, with the most intense anomalies occurring near the city of Warsaw. These deficits continue into southern and southwestern Belarus, in the Brest and Gomel regions.  

  • Eastern Finland, in areas near Lake Pielinen. 

  • Greece, in central portions of Peloponnese and near the cities of Volos and Thessaloniki. 

  • Western Romania, with the most intense anomalies appearing near the city of Oradea. These deficits continue northwest into Slovakia. 

  • Southwestern coastal regions of Portugal, as well as southern to central Spain. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Northern Norway, in the Troms and Nordland regions, continuing into Sweden, in northwestern areas of Norrbotten County. 

  • Eastern coastal regions of Spain, in the Catalonia region. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN

The forecast through March 2025 indicates that extreme to exceptional deficits will occur in eastern to northeastern Poland, southern Lithuania, southwestern Belarus, and northwestern Ukraine. Severe to extreme deficits are expected in western Romania. Further south, extreme to exceptional deficits are anticipated in south-central Portugal, southern to central Spain, and southern Sicily. Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in south-central Norway, near Møre og Romsdal County. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected throughout northern Sweden. 

From April through June 2025, exceptional deficits will intensify in eastern Poland, southern to southwestern Belarus, and northwestern Ukraine. Exceptional deficits will also emerge in Finland, in areas near Lake Pielinen. Surpluses of moderate to severe intensity will continue in northern Norway and northwestern Sweden. 

The forecast for the final months – July through September 2025 – anticipates that exceptional deficits may continue in southwestern Belarus, as well as central to southern Spain.  Moderate to severe deficits may continue in central Belarus, eastern Poland, Sicily, and western coastal Norway. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS

In a recent CRESTA briefing, representatives announced global natural catastrophe losses in 2024 reached $18.2 billion. Flooding accounted for 78% of the total losses. Eight international catastrophes exceeding $1 billion in insured losses were listed, including the Valencia Floods in Spain totaling $3.9 billion in damages. This disaster became the largest natural catastrophe loss in Spain's insurance history. 

The 2024 Global Water Monitor report highlighted the economic damages of water-related extreme weather events, which totaled over $550 billion in costs. In Europe, record highs for monthly rainfall were reportedly 27% more frequent in 2024 than in 2000, and daily rainfall records by 52%. Experts anticipate that global temperatures will increase further in 2025, and that some regions, including Europe, may soon see more flash floods and droughts. Reacting to the report, sustainable business representative Mike Barry stated that the situation “shows how fragile society and the economy are” and how emerging markets have “prospered in a very, very narrow climatic window that we are now pushing the boundaries of.”

In Spain, Barcelona and Catalonia continue to grapple with droughts and flooding worsened by climate change. Despite heavy rains and flooding in late 2024, reservoirs in these regions are at critically low levels after three years of severe drought. Water restrictions remain in place, which limit use and prohibit non-essential activities like garden watering. Catalonia’s rainfall is increasingly intense but infrequent, with storms often failing to replenish aquifers or reservoirs. Efforts to secure water include desalination plants, wastewater recycling, and progressive tariffs to reduce consumption. 
NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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