Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Exceptional surplus continues throughout central America

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Exceptional surplus continues throughout central America

23 January 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in September 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will continue in northwestern Mexico. Severe to exceptional surpluses will persist in much of Central America. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Southern Mexico, near eastern Guerrero and western Oaxaca. 

  • Northeastern Guatemala, continuing into much of Belize. 

  • North-central Honduras, widespread throughout regions near the city of La Ceiba.

  • Nicaragua, in areas east of Lake Cocibolca. 

  • Costa Rica, throughout northern and eastern regions of the country, continuing into western and southern Panama. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in: 

  • Northwestern Mexico, within the states of Sonora and western Chihuahua.

  • Central Mexico, near Mexico City. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through March 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will remain in northwestern and north-central Mexico, as well as much of southern Baja California and northern Baja California Sur. Transitional conditions are expected to emerge in portions of Mexico, in the states of Michocan, Guerrero, and Tamaulipas. Severe to extreme surplus is expected to continue in Guerrero and Oaxaca. Exceptional surplus is expected to spread further throughout Central America, covering much of Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and western to southern Panama. Severe surplus will continue in Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsul

From April through June 2025, pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will linger in northwestern Mexico, primarily in coastal regions of Sonora and Sinaloa, as well as in Baja California Sur. Moderate to severe surpluses may occur in central Mexico near northern Guerrero, as well as throughout much of Central America. 

The forecast for the final months – July through September 2025 – suggests that widespread surpluses in Central America will diminish, becoming mostly near-normal conditions. Some portions of northwest and central Mexico will observe isolated pockets of severe to exceptional deficits. Most other regions may observe near-normal conditions. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
UNESCO reports that one in six cultural heritage sites worldwide are threatened by climate change. Last year in Michoacan, heavy rains and prior drought-induced structural damage caused the collapse of a 15-meter tall monument. Archaeologists express concern regarding preservation of archaeological sites and a lack of coordination among climate policymakers. Funding is cited as the primary issue for archaeological preservation in the face of climate change. "We have to have conversations about loss and what people value," said Dr. Mairi Davies of Historic Environment Scotland.

In Oaxaca, indigenous Zapotec women have organized to combat local water scarcity. Led by Agustina Ortiz and supported by the non-profit Grupedsac, they have implemented drought-resilient farming techniques to grow local crops such as beans, corn, and squash. These projects have improved water access, sanitation, and food security, while connecting over 1,500 women. 

Conafor reports that in 2024, Mexico experienced a 60% increase in wildfire destruction compared to 2023, citing climate change as a factor for the increase. Over 4.1 million acres were burned, marking the highest loss recorded since 1998. Conafor reported that 95% of the damage affected grasses and shrubs, with only 5% impacting tree cover. Recovery for 41% of the damaged areas is expected to take over five years, and Conafor expects similar conditions in 2025, as drought continues to affect 38% of the country. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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