South America: Deficits remain in the Amazon, Andes

South America: Deficits remain in the Amazon, Andes

23 January 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in September 2025 indicates that widespread deficits in South America will diminish in some countries, but will remain present in several regions of the Amazon, as well as some portions of the Andes.  

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in: 

  • Central and eastern Brazil, within the states of Rondonia and Mato Grosso, as well as isolated regions of Bahia, Piaui, and Maranhao. 

  • Western Brazil, throughout the state of Amazonas, southern Roraima, and Acre. These deficits continue west into northeastern Peru, in the northern area of the Loreto region. 

  • Western coastal regions of Colombia and Ecuador. These deficits also emerge in western coastal areas of Peru, near the city of Paita. 

  • Northeastern Bolivia, in the Iténez Province. 

  • Regions along the shared borders of Argentina and Chile, in western areas of the Argentinian province of Jujuy, the Chilean region of Antogafasta, and in west-central areas of Argentina’s Santa Cruz province. 

Moderate to severe surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Southeastern Brazil, in southern coastal regions of the state of Sao Paulo. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through March 2025 indicates that widespread exceptional surpluses will appear throughout Colombia. Surpluses of moderate to severe intensity will appear in northern Peru, eastern Ecuador, Venezuela, western Brazil, and the Guianas. Exceptional deficits will emerge in northeastern Bolivia, isolated regions of central and eastern Brazil, and in central Chile near the city of Santiago. 

From April through June 2025, moderate to severe surpluses are expected to continue in northern areas of South America. The most intense anomalies will occur in northern and western Brazil, northern and eastern Colombia, and Guyana. Moderate to severe deficits are anticipated in southern Ecuador, western Peru, and northwestern Argentina. 

The forecast for the final months – July through September 2025 – severe to extreme deficits are expected to arise in western Peru, Ecuador, and western to central Colombia. Moderate to severe deficits may emerge in southern Venezuela and some portions of the Guianas. Most other regions of South America will observe near-normal conditions. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Ecuador continues to face an energy crisis as severe drought continues to affect its ability to generate hydroelectric power. Ecuador’s power grid is highly dependent on hydroelectricity, and as less hydroelectric power is available, daily blackouts which last up to 14 hours affect the region. The blackouts cause significant economic and social disruptions, with each blackout estimated to cost at least $12 million per hour. Experts emphasize the country’s over-reliance on hydropower amid climate change and have urged diversification of power supplies, such as wind and solar energy.

La Niña has officially manifested in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to persist throughout early 2025. As La Niña emerges, current drought conditions in agricultural lands of South America are expected to worsen, according to officials at the US Climate Prediction Center. Ocean surface temperatures dropped to 0.9F of a degree (0.5C) below normal across the parts of the Pacific tracked by the US, said Michelle L’Heureux, a forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. “La Niña has finally emerged,” L’Heureux said.  “It took its time, but we are there.”

In 2024, South America experienced its highest number of wildfires in 14 years, with 54% of the 511,575 fires occurring in Brazil. Among the most affected areas were the Amazon, the Pantanal wetlands, and the state of São Paulo. The fires were fueled by extreme drought linked to El Niño, which created dry, flammable conditions. Though deforestation in the region was reduced by 30%, fires continued as deforesters used fire to clear land, which is more difficult to detect in comparison to the use of machinery. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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