Central Asia & Russia: Surpluses continue in N Kazakhstan

Central Asia & Russia: Surpluses continue in N Kazakhstan

28 January 2025

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending in September 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will occur in portions of northwestern, western, southeastern, and northern Russia. Surpluses are expected to continue in northern Kazakhstan and in pockets of central and eastern Russia

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:  

  • Northwestern Russia, across the Nenets Autonomous Okrug and northern coastal regions of Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. 

  • Western Russia, throughout the Komi Republic, Perm Krai, and Sverdlovsk Oblast. 

  • Southeastern Russia, in areas east of Lake Baikal, specifically northern Buryatia and western Zabaykalsky Krai. 

  • Northern Russia, along the northern coast of the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District. 

Moderate to severe surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Central Russia, in the central regions of Krasnoyarsk Krai. 

  • Eastern Russia, near the Lena River. 

  • Northern Kazakhstan, in the Akmola Region. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through March 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will continue in much of western Russia, specifically in the Komi Republic, Perm Krai, and the Republic of Bashkortostan. Severe to extreme deficits are expected in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. Exceptional deficits are also expected in northeastern Russia, in central to southern areas of the Sakha Republic, and in areas east of Lake Baikal. Severe to exceptional surpluses will continue in north-central regions of the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District, Altai Krai, central Ust-Yansky District, and in northern and southeastern Kazakhstan.

From April through June 2025, exceptional deficits are expected to resolve in several regions of Russia, but remain in southern Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, and in areas east of Lake Baikal. Severe to extreme surpluses are anticipated in north-central Kazakhstan and in western and central regions of Irkutsk Oblast. Further west, moderate to severe surplus are expected to cover most of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug.

The forecast for the final months – July through September 2025 – suggest that pockets of moderate to severe deficits will occur throughout western and central Russia. Extreme to exceptional deficits may persist in northern coastal areas of the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District, Nenets Autonomous Okrug, and in central Buryatia. Moderate to severe surpluses may persist in north-central Kazakhstan and south-central Sakha Republic.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Russia’s 2025 winter grain harvest is expected to be the lowest in 23 years due to prolonged drought and lack of appropriate agricultural technology. In addition to a lack of sufficient technology, the Russian government imposed seed import quotas in 2024 on specific nations, which worsened the situation and increased seed prices. Farmers, facing financial concerns, have delayed machinery upgrades, which led to a 16.5% drop in agricultural equipment sales last year. Grain industry profits fell to 4.9% in 2024 from 27.8% in 2020, and Russian grain production has declined from 153.6M tonnes in 2022 to 130M tonnes in 2024. 

In Rostov Oblast, governor Yuri Slyusar recently lifted the drought-related state of emergency after it was issued on June 11, 2024. The emergency was initially declared to address the risk of losing 30% of the upcoming harvest. A separate state of emergency that was issued due to unusual spring frosts, which affected over 140,000 hectares of crops starting May 2024, was also lifted. 

To prepare for the 2025 spring thaw, representatives of Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (MWRI) released water from key reservoirs this month to mitigate potential flooding. These preparations follow the devastating floods that occurred last year, which were the worst to occur in Kazakhstan in 80 years, displacing over 120,000 people. Nurzhan Nurzhigitov, head of MWRI, emphasized the importance of strategic water management throughout the year. “In spring, it is critical not only to collect floodwaters in reservoirs but also to distribute them to lake systems, natural pastures, and meadows,” said Nurzhigitov. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.