South Asia: Surplus remains in several regions of India

South Asia: Surplus remains in several regions of India

28 January 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in September 2025 indicates that surpluses will persist in much of north-central, south-central, and eastern India. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in: 

  • Southern Afghanistan, in southern areas of the Helmand and Nimruz provinces. 

  • Southwestern Pakistan, in western portions of the Balochistan province. 

  • Northern India, in easternmost regions of Ladakh. 

Moderate to extreme surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • North-central India, within the state of Rajasthan. 

  • Western India, in western coastal regions of Gujarat. 

  • Southern India, in the states of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu. 

  • Bangladesh, in most central regions of the country. 

  • Sri Lanka, widespread throughout northern and central areas of the country.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through March 2025 indicates that transitional conditions will be widespread throughout most central and south-central regions of India, with the most intense anomalies occurring in western coastal Maharashtra, eastern Rajasthan, and West Bengal. Small areas of southern, central, and northeastern Pakistan will also observe transitional conditions. Further east, the state of Meghalaya is expected to observe widespread transitional conditions. Moderate to severe surpluses are anticipated in southern India, in eastern Karnataka, western Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu. Moderate to severe surpluses are anticipated in most of Sri Lanka and south-central Bangladesh. Isolated pockets of moderate to severe surpluses will occur in central to northeastern Afghanistan. 

From April through June 2025, severe to extreme surpluses are expected to emerge in eastern Rajasthan, the majority of Gujarat, western Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu. Moderate surpluses are anticipated across Bangladesh. Sri Lanka will observe widespread severe surpluses. Small areas along the shared border of western India and eastern Pakistan will observe exceptional deficits, specifically near the town of Khajuwala.

The forecast for the final months – July through September 2025 – expects that moderate to severe surpluses may continue in portions of Sri Lanka and the Indian state of Tamil Nadu, as well as areas of central India. Exceptional deficits may emerge in easternmost areas of the Indian state of Ladakh.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
As Indian communities continue to rebuild after October 2023’s disastrous glacial lake outburst floods, experts in psychological health have drawn links between extreme climate events and mental health of survivors. "It's been over a year, and my daughter still can't attend school or lead a normal life. She's on medication and has suffered multiple panic attacks where she's lost consciousness," explains local Preeti Nandi. The floods caused widespread destruction and reportedly caused 55 deaths. Psychological health experts continue to report cases of disorders, including anxiety and post traumatic stress disorder, all exacerbated by climate change-induced extreme weather events.

In Iran, officials recently criticized the Taliban for inhibiting regional cooperation on shared water resources, citing the Taliban uses water as a geopolitical tool to assert resource control. Officials also cited violations of agreements that include the 1973 Helmand River Water Treaty. Dams in Afghanistan, such as the Pashdan Dam, have significantly reduced water flow to drought-affected regions of Iran, like Sistan and Baluchestan. Officials warn that ongoing dam projects threaten local ecosystems like the Hamoun Lake and further exacerbate water scarcity. 

The Pakistan Meteorological Department recently issued a drought alert for the Sindh province, including the city of Karachi, as the department reported a 52% decrease in rainfall this season. The dry spell, which is expected to persist through February and March, puts several districts at high risk of worsening drought conditions, such as Naushahro Feroze, Sukkur. Between September 2024 and mid-January 2025, Pakistan experienced 40% less rainfall overall, with the Sindh, Balochistan, and Punjab regions being particularly affected. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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