Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses arise in Maritime Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surpluses arise in Maritime Southeast Asia

15 January 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in September 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will resolve in Mainland Southeast Asia. Some regions of Maritime Southeast Asia can anticipate moderate to severe surpluses. 

Moderate to severe surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Philippines, widespread throughout most areas of the country. 

  • Indonesia, in eastern areas of East Nusa Tenggara. 

  • Central to eastern Myanmar, in eastern areas of the state of Shan. 

  • Malaysia, in northern portions of the state of Perak. 

  • Papua, with the most intense anomalies occurring in the Merauke and Mimika regencies. 

Moderate deficits are expected in:  

  • Indonesia, in central areas of Sumatra. 

  • Northern Myanmar, in areas near the Khakaborazi National Park

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through March 2025 indicates that severe to exceptional surpluses will persist throughout the Philippines and East Nusa Tenggara. Moderate to severe surpluses will occur in southern Thailand, in the Malay Peninsula, and northern Sumatra. In Papua, the Merauke and Mimika regencies can anticipate moderate surpluses, as well as southern areas of Papua New Guinea’s Western Province. Western areas of West Papua can expect widespread moderate surpluses. Pockets of exceptional deficits are anticipated in central Thailand. 

From April through June 2025, much of Thailand, northern Laos, and central Philippines will observe moderate to severe surpluses. Moderate deficits may emerge in Indonesia, specifically in Kalimantan, Borneo, and Sumatra. Exceptional deficits may persist in southeastern Thailand. 

The forecast for the final months – July through September 2025 – anticipates that most regions of Southeast Asia will observe near-normal conditions. Moderate deficits may continue in north-central Sumatra.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In 2024, Typhoon Yagi caused severe flooding in the Mekong River, which devastated several Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, and Laos after years of drought. In an effort to improve responses to extreme weather and overall climate resilience, the Mekong River Commission recently began developing better forecasting tools, including the AI-enabled One Mekong mobile application. One Mekong provides real-time weather data, disaster alerts, and community updates, which will assist in the improvement of responses to extreme weather. 

In Thailand, the Pha Tad Waterfall in Kanchanaburi's Srinakarin Dam National Park will close starting February 1 due to drought conditions. The waterfall, which currently lacks sufficient water due to drought, is currently unable to support tourism or any nearby accommodations. The closure was announced on January 20, and aims to allow the waterfall to recover, remaining in effect until further notice. Officials stated that tourists with bookings can request refunds.

As of January 22nd, rescuers in Indonesia continue to search following the severe flooding and landslides that recently hit central Java. Four additional bodies were found, bringing the death toll to 21. Rains caused nearby rivers to flood nine villages in Pekalongan, which destroyed several residences, businesses, and infrastructure. 13 people reported injuries, and nearly 300 people were displaced. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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