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Revisiting the 2024 Yemen floods

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Revisiting the 2024 Yemen floods

From June to August 2024, regions of Yemen experienced prolonged, heavy rainfall, which caused at least 57 deaths, displaced thousands of residents, and severely affected key sectors and essential services. According to the UN humanitarian affairs office (OCHA), more than 341,000 Yemenis were affected. The areas most affected were reportedly Hudaydah, Hajjah, Taiz, and Marib.

Drone footage shows flooding in Hudaydah, Yemen. (Image: BBC/Reuters)

The figure below, released by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, represents the areas that experienced the most severe damage brought on by the floods. Highlighted regions include several provinces in western Yemen within the governorates of Al Hudaydah, Taizz, and Hajjah.

Did ISciences Successfully Predict These Floods?

More than four months in advance, the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) correctly predicted the flooding as well as the affected location. Our reports, beginning in February 2024, highlighted an emergency of severe to extreme surplus anomalies occurring in western Yemen – more specifically in west-central and western coastal regions of the country. 

WSIM forecasts depicting surplus released in May 2024

Impacts

The flooded regions included the highlands and traditionally flood-prone areas, such as Al Hodeidah, Amran, Dhamar, Hajjah, Sa’dah, Sana’a, and Ta’iz. The deluge was an exceptional deviation from normal weather patterns and affected coastal areas, which do not typically experience significant flooding during this time of the year. The floods affected 180,000 people across 20 districts in Al Hodeidah alone, with the most severe damages occurring in Al Marawi’ah, Az Zaydiah, and Bayt Al Faqih. 

The deluge had significant negative impacts on multiple sectors, with extensive crop damage and soil erosion affecting the agricultural sector, jeopardizing food security for thousands of Yemenis. The floods also destroyed critical infrastructure, such as drainage systems, which were already reportedly in poor condition. The shelter sector saw the widespread destruction of homes, particularly in IDP camps, which left thousands without adequate shelter. Health services were also impacted as floods accelerated the spread of waterborne diseases like cholera, malaria, and dengue fever.

Yemen ranks 159th out of 185 countries in terms of climate readiness, making it one of the nations most vulnerable to climate change worldwide. Projections indicate that these heavy rainfall events will increase in frequency and intensity in Yemen. 

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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