Europe: Deficits linger in eastern Europe

23 February 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in October 2025 indicates that exceptional surpluses in western Europe will dissipate. Deficits are expected to remain in several regions of eastern Europe.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

Eastern Poland, widespread throughout many regions near the city of Warsaw. These deficits continue into north-central and southern Belarus, as well as northwestern Ukraine.
Western Romania, spreading north from areas near the city of Timisoara to the city of Satu Mare. Regions near the city of Kosice in eastern Slovakia will observe severe deficits.
Eastern Finland, throughout areas near Lake Pielinen.
Greece, in eastern portions of the Peloponnese region.
Spain, appearing in pockets near the city of Salamanca and north of the city of Murcia.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in:

Northern Sweden, throughout areas near the Stora Sjöfallets / Stuor Muorkke National Park.
Northern Norway, widespread throughout the Nordland and Trondelag counties.
Northern France, throughout regions near Paris.
Eastern Spain, along the eastern coast of the country’s Tarragona and Castellon regions.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN

The forecast through April 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will remain in some eastern European countries, including eastern to southeastern Poland, northwestern Ukraine, and southern Belarus. These deficits continue into southern Lithuania and eastern Slovakia. Severe to extreme deficits are expected to occur in eastern Hungary. Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in western Romania. Southeastern provinces of Spain, particularly Granada and Jaen, can expect moderate deficits. Further north, moderate to severe surpluses are expected to span much of Norway, Finland, and Sweden. Moderate surpluses are expected to cover much of Iceland.

From May through July 2025, deficits are expected to expand in eastern Europe. Exceptional deficits are anticipated to endure in eastern Poland, northwestern Ukraine, and southern Belarus. Exceptional deficits in eastern Finland, near Lake Pielinen, are expected to continue. Severe deficits are expected to cover regions of north-central Belarus, eastern Ukraine, and northeastern Poland. In northern Sweden, western areas of Norrbotten County can anticipate severe to exceptional surpluses. These surpluses continue into northern Norway, into the Nordland region.

The forecast for the final months – August through October 2025 – indicates that exceptional deficits in eastern Poland and northwestern Ukraine will downgrade in severity, but will continue in southwestern Belarus, as well as northern to eastern Ukraine. Many European countries will observe continued near-normal conditions with some abnormal anomalies.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS

Western areas of France experienced its worst flood in decades after three storms in rapid succession brought record rainfall. Over 1,600 residents were forced to evacuate as rivers rose, significantly damaging particular regions such as Redon and Rennes, which observed its worst flooding in 40 years. "It's quite catastrophic," said one local. "I am also thinking of how the clean-up will be difficult for all these people once the waters recede."

A recent study from the University of Liverpool highlighted the negative impacts of warming climates on reproduction of European beech trees. Researchers identified a 28% decline in beech tree growth since 2005. “Our research demonstrates that climate warming—independent of changes in drought—results in growth decline because it causes the trees to shift resource allocation from growth to reproduction. Under warmer temperatures, the trees in our long-term study reproduced more, and grew less as a consequence,” said Dr. Andrew Hacket-Pain, lead author of the study. "This result is important because it suggests that beech growing in less drought-prone regions of Europe are not protected from the effects of climate change, as suggested in previous studies."

According to Europe’s climate monitor, the Copernicus Climate Change Service, global temperatures remained high in early 2025, despite the expected cooling effect of La Niña. January reached a record 1.75 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Global temperatures over 2023 to 2024 exceeded the Paris Agreement’s 1.5° Celsius target. Scientists emphasize that ocean temperatures will be closely monitored, as oceans absorb excess heat and carbon, playing a crucial role in climate regulation.

Spain continues to seek recovery funds to improve Valencia’s climate resilience after the city experienced devastating floods last October. The disaster, worsened by outdated infrastructure, pushed water investment higher on the country’s agenda. Spain has already allocated €3 billion for water projects, but faces a €5 billion annual shortfall. Meanwhile, water shortages continue along Spain’s Mediterranean coast, which prompt further investments in desalination and recycling projects.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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