East Asia: NW China, Yangtze River Basin to observe continued deficits

24 February 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in October 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits are expected to remain in northwestern and southwestern China, as well as in significant portions of the Yangtze River Basin. Moderate to severe surpluses will continue in several northeastern areas of China.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

Northwestern China, in much of southern to eastern Xinjiang.
Northern China, appearing in western Gansu and continuing east into western Inner Mongolia.
Western China, occurring in western areas of Tibet’s Ngari Prefecture.
Southeastern China, in central and eastern areas of the Yangtze River Basin, particularly in areas near Poyang Lake and Dongdongting Lake.
Southwestern Mongolia, appearing in the Govi-Altai and Khovd aimags.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in:

Northeastern China, primarily in central to eastern Inner Mongolia, as well as western areas of Heilongjiang.
Central China, in northern portions of Qinghai.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through April 2025 indicates that severe to exceptional deficits will persist in most central to eastern regions of the Yangtze River Basin, as well as western and eastern regions of Tibet. Severe to extreme deficits are anticipated in areas of eastern Inner Mongolia, northern Heilongjiang, and southern and eastern coastal regions of Japan. Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in westernmost regions of Mongolia, as well as west-central regions of the country, near the Zavkhan River. Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to continue within northern and eastern areas of Tibet and southern portions of Xinjiang, as well as southern Qinghai, western Gansu, and western Sichuan. These surpluses continue northeast into central to eastern Inner Mongolia, central to eastern Heilongjiang, Liaoning, and the Shandong Peninsula. Transitional conditions are expected in southwestern Tibet, western Shandong, and southeastern Xinjiang.

From May through July 2025, southern Xinjiang is expected to experience an emergence of exceptional deficits, continuing into isolated areas of Inner Mongolia. Eastern Inner Mongolia and northern portions of Heilongjiang are expected to observe severe to exceptional deficits. Moderate to severe deficits are anticipated in western to central Tibet. Eastern Tibet is expected to observe isolated pockets of severe to exceptional surpluses, as are some western regions of Sichuan.

The forecast for the final months – August through October 2025 – indicates that small pockets of exceptional deficits will continue in northwestern, western, and northern China. Moderate to severe surpluses will continue in portions of eastern Inner Mongolia.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In an effort to offset drought and forest fire risk, large-scale artificial rain operations were conducted in the Jiangxi Province over the Spring Festival holiday. Over the past month, these efforts increased rainfall by 149 million tons, bringing precipitation to tens of thousands of square kilometers and significantly improving drought conditions in several areas. However, some southern regions are still facing significant fire risk.

A recent study links the destructive floods that occurred in southern China last summer to unusually high spring temperatures in Tibet. In the past, these comparatively warmer Tibetan springs have led to wetter summers in southern China, and last spring was the warmest since 1980. The study, published in Science Bulletin, also revealed that Tibet’s warm spring increased rainfall in Japan.

Scientists studied tree rings from ancient trees on the Tibetan Plateau to track patterns of rain within the past 3,500 years. These studies found that recent droughts in the 20th century are some of the worst in three millennia, likely due to manmade pollution and its effect on weather patterns. The research also identified three historical periods of destructive drought that occurred alongside social unrest in the region, as well as the collapse of dynasties, showing a history of climate change impacting human civilization.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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