Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses continue in Queensland

Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses continue in Queensland

24 February 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in October 2025 indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses will resolve in most northern regions of Australia. Isolated exceptional deficits throughout Australia are expected to resolve, but some will remain in southeastern coastal regions of the continent, as well as portions of New Zealand. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in: 

  • South Australia, in southern coastal regions of the state near the city of Adelaide. These deficits continue into regions of the Tatiara and Kingston District Councils.

  • Southern coastal regions of Victoria, with severe deficits occurring along the Barwon South West region and near the city of Melbourne.   

  • Tasmania, throughout western and central areas of the state. 

  • Southern New Zealand, in western coastal regions of the South Island. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Northern Queensland, with severe surpluses appearing along the state’s northeastern coast, from the city of Cairns to Townsville City. 

  • Northeastern coastal regions of New South Wales.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN

The forecast through April 2025 indicates that moderate to severe surpluses will continue in much of northern and eastern Queensland. North-central areas of Northern Territory and northern coastal regions of Western Australia should anticipate moderate surpluses. Further south, exceptional deficits are expected to arise in Victoria, along the Barwon South West region’s southern coast. Western Tasmania will observe extreme to exceptional deficits. Moderate to severe deficits are anticipated in much of New Zealand’s South Island and in western coastal regions of the North Island. 

From May through July 2025, deficits in southeastern Australia are expected to dissipate. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected to linger in coastal regions of Queensland, as well as in north-central regions of Northern Territory. Severe to extreme deficits are expected to continue in much of Tasmania. 

The forecast for the final months – August through October 2025 – indicates that exceptional deficits will occur in northern coastal regions of Western Australia and Northern Territory. Moderate to severe surpluses will continue in Queensland in regions along the state’s eastern coast from Townsville City to Cairns.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS

Queensland recently experienced severe flooding, which resulted in one death and immediate evacuations, particularly in Hinchinbrook Shire and Townsville. The flooding was due to a low-pressure system bringing heavy rain up to 11.8 inches in 24 hours. Queensland, a key mining area, experienced a similar event in 2019, which disrupted zinc and lead shipments.

The flooding in Queensland also affected supermarket supply chains, which inhibited availability of some products for weeks. While larger supermarkets faced these shortages, smaller independent stores which rely on local farms saw an increase in customers, with one local farmers market observing a 300% increase in sales. 

South Australia's wine industry started one of its earliest harvests on record as a dry year, heat, and frost damage affects the region. The season has started up in some places as much as a month early, particularly in key regions like Riverland, Barossa, and Clare Valley. Due to the change in harvest time, yields are expected to be lower. Additionally, farmers have faced irrigation challenges due to limited water availability.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.