Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses continue throughout Queensland

Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses continue throughout Queensland

20 March 2025

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending in November 2025 indicates that severe to extreme surpluses will continue in areas of Queensland. Deficits are expected to occur in southern Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

  • Southwestern areas of Victoria, continuing west into southeastern coastal regions of South Australia, in areas southeast of the city of Adelaide. 

  • Tasmania, throughout most western to central areas of the country. 

  • Coastal regions of New Zealand, throughout the South Island’s southwestern coast, as well as the North Island’s western coast. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Northern Queensland, throughout much of the Shire of Mareeba and in portions of the Staaten River National Park. The most intense anomalies are expected in coastal areas near the Great Barrier Reef, including Cairns and Townsville City. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN

The forecast through May 2025 indicates that severe to extreme surplus will linger throughout eastern coastal regions of Queensland, spreading throughout coastal regions bordering the Great Barrier Reef, appearing near the city of Cairns. These anomalies continue south along the coast into Townsville City. Exceptional deficits across southern Australia are expected to dissipate. Moderate to severe deficits are expected to occur in southern coastal regions of Victoria. Extreme to exceptional deficits are anticipated in western to central Tasmania, as well as southern coastal regions of New Zealand’s South Island, and western coastal portions of the North Island. 

From June through August 2025, surpluses are expected to remain in eastern portions of Queensland. Deficits in Tasmania are expected to downgrade in intensity, but continue in central and northeastern areas of the country. Deficits in New Zealand will also downgrade in intensity, but continue as moderate deficits in southern coastal regions of the South Island. 

The forecast for the final months – September through November 2025 – predicts that severe to extreme surpluses will persist in Queensland. Surpluses of moderate to severe intensity are expected to emerge in southeastern New South Wales, within the Murray-Darling river basin area. Moderate to severe deficits are expected to continue in portions of Tasmania and southern New Zealand.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS

Tropical Cyclone Alfred hit Queensland on March 9th, bringing heavy rains, intense gusts, and flooding to the state. Over 310,000 citizens of Queensland’s southeast experienced electricity disruptions, with the city of Gold Coast bearing the brunt of the damage. According to energy distributor Energex, nearly 112,000 Gold Coast residents were without power due to the storm. 

A severe drought in Adelaide Hills has left thousands of people without water, forcing them to either rely on transported water or evacuate their homes. Locals report long wait times for water delivery, with some suppliers staying booked out for months. The drought has been described as the worst the region has seen in nearly two decades. 

Recent research by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) found that groundwater levels across Australia are declining due to a significant decrease in rainfall. In Western Australia, specifically, groundwater replenishment is at an 800-year low. Teams of researchers, including Stacey Priestley, Research Scientist in CSIRO’s Water Security Program, anticipate that the reliability of the region’s groundwater recharge may be in danger.
NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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