South Asia: Surpluses persist in W, SE India

South Asia: Surpluses persist in W, SE India

20 March 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in November 2025 indicates that extreme to exceptional surpluses in India will resolve, though severe to extreme surpluses will persist in portions of western and southeastern India. Isolated pockets of severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in northern and eastern India, as well as some portions of Pakistan. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

  • Northern India, in eastern areas of Himachal Pradesh.

  • Eastern India, in the states of Meghalaya and Nagaland. 

  • Areas along the shared border of western India and Pakistan, near the Bikaner Division. 

Severe to extreme surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • West-central India, in central regions of the state of Rajasthan. 

  • Southeastern India, in central to northern regions of Tamil Nadu. 

  • Pakistan, in regions near the city of Karachi.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through May 2025 indicates that severe to extreme transitional conditions are expected to spread further throughout central and western India, with the most intense anomalies appearing in eastern Rajasthan and western coastal areas of Gujarat. Severe to exceptional surplus is anticipated in eastern India, specifically in West Bengal and eastern Jharkhand. Severe to extreme surplus is expected throughout much of southern India, appearing in Maharashtra and continuing south into Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Moderate surplus is expected throughout Sri Lanka. Exceptional deficit is expected in portions of Nagaland and in eastern Himachal Pradesh. 

From June through August 2025, moderate surplus is expected to emerge in eastern India, as well as central portions of the country. Further south, moderate to severe surpluses are expected to occur in southeastern India, in the state of Tamil Nadu. Moderate surplus is expected in southern Bangladesh, and in northern and southern Sri Lanka. Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in much of Bhutan and in northern India, in eastern portions of Himachal Pradesh. 

The forecast for the final months – September through November 2025 – indicates that moderate surplus will continue in east-central India, as well as southeastern coastal regions of Andhra Pradesh. Exceptional deficits may emerge in central Pakistan, northernmost India, and southern to eastern Afghanistan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Pakistan’s honey industry is at risk of decline due to erratic weather patterns and pollution disrupting beekeeping practices. Down from 22 honey varieties, bees in the country now yield only 11 as flowering seasons have shortened. Honey production has dropped 15% since 2022, which has endangered the country’s honey trades. Additionally, food security has also been impacted, as bees are unable to successfully pollinate due to severe smog. 

Production of oranges in Nepal, particularly in the Gorkha district, has decreased as a result of plant disease, winter drought, and lack of irrigation. Sales dropped from $1.01 million last year to $750,000 so far in 2025, while production fell from 2,300 to 1,800 tons. Local farmers have requested assistance from the Prime Minister’s recent agricultural project, stating that if it “provides necessary skilled technicians in a timely manner and provides the necessary fertilizer and irrigation facilities, orange production will increase."

Heavy rain in northwestern Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province resulted in four deaths and nine injuries. According to the Provincial Disaster Management Authority, the affected districts include Haripur, Battagram, Bajaur, Kohistan, Dir, Hangu, Khyber, and Torghar. Fourteen houses reported damage, with three being completely destroyed. The flood comes after an extensive drought that affected key crops across the country last month, including wheat and potatoes. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.