South America: Surpluses emerge in the Amazon

20 March 2025

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending in November 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits throughout the continent will significantly decrease in size and intensity, but will persist in some portions of Brazil. Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to emerge in the western Amazon Basin.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

Central and southern Brazil, appearing in the states of Rondonia, Mato Grosso, and Mato Grosso do Sul.
Eastern Brazil, in the state of Tocantins, as well as eastern portions of Bahia.
Eastern Ecuador, in the Morona Santiago province, as well as eastern Venezuela and northern Guyana.
Paraguay, in the San Pedro Department.
Chile, appearing in regions near the city of Santiago and continuing south into the Linares Province. Exceptional deficits are also anticipated in southern and southwestern Argentina, in the Chubut and Santa Cruz provinces.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in:

Western Brazil, in central regions of the state of Amazonas.
Southeastern Colombia, in the Amazonas department.
Southeastern Peru, in regions near the Mashco Piro Indigenous Reserve.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through May 2025 indicates that severe to exceptional surplus will emerge throughout much of the Bolivarian Nations, with the most intense anomalies occurring in western Brazil, in the state of Amazonas, as well as northeastern Peru and western and southeastern Colombia. Exceptional deficits are expected to remain in central and southeastern Brazil, in the states of Mato Grosso, Goias, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Sao Paulo. Further south, regions along the shared border of eastern Chile and western Argentina will experience moderate to severe deficits. In Argentina, portions of the Buenos Aires province are expected to observe moderate to severe surpluses.

From June through August 2025, exceptional deficits are expected to continue in central and southeastern Brazil. Severe to exceptional deficits will emerge in Suriname and French Guiana, as well as pockets of southern and eastern Venezuela. Central Colombia is expected to observe moderate to severe deficits. Severe to exceptional surpluses in the Bolivarian Nations are expected to dissipate.

The forecast for the final months – September through November 2025 – indicates that exceptional deficits in central and southeastern Brazil are expected to mostly dissipate. Deficits in the Guianas are also expected to diminish in intensity, becoming mostly moderate deficits. Moderate to severe deficits are expected to spread throughout southern and eastern Venezuela. Severe to exceptional deficits may occur in central Ecuador, southwestern to northern Colombia, and northern coastal regions of Venezuela. Moderate to severe surplus may occur in eastern Argentina, southern Bolivia, and central Paraguay.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In 2024, 79 million hectares in South America were destroyed by wildfires, while South American urban centers saw wildfire-related danger on unprecedented levels. In Bolivia, 16 million hectares were destroyed, equal to 15% of its land. Additionally, Brazil saw the destruction of 59.2 million hectares, while Venezuela lost 9% of its territory to fires. Chile experienced the worst of the fires, which caused 136 deaths, 1,200 injuries, and the destruction of thousands of homes. The economic damage is estimated at $4.39 billion.

Following one of Brazil’s worst droughts on record, coffee farmers in the country have almost completely sold out of their crops months before the next harvest. These shortages occur as global coffee bean prices nearly double over the past 14 months, leading to all-time high costs. Prices for arabica beans rose 70% in 2024 and almost 20% in 2025, above $4.30 per pound as of February 11th. "We never had such low stocks in February, a period that is still distant from the new crop," said Willian Cesar Freiria, sales manager at Cocapec, Brazil's third largest coffee co-op. "Until the start of the next harvest we won't have much coffee to sell, and it is not only us; it is the same everywhere."

At least ten deaths were reported as thousands were evacuated from the Argentine city of Bahia Blanca following torrential rains and flooding. On March 7th, the city experienced eight hours of nonstop rain, with floods destroying homes, hospitals, and roads, as well as causing power outages. The storm brought over 15 inches of rain, equivalent to what the city normally gets in a year. Security Minister for the Buenos Aires province Javier Alonso stated that the storm was "something unprecedented." "The biggest storm in Bahia Blanca was in 1930, with 175 millimeters. This is almost three times bigger," said Alonso.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags