Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Surpluses remain in Central America

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Surpluses remain in Central America

20 March 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in November 2025 indicates that most exceptional anomalies in central and southern Mexico will resolve, becoming mostly near-normal conditions. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected to remain in portions of Central America. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

  • Northwestern Mexico, primarily within the state of Sonora. 

  • Central Mexico, in isolated pockets of the state of San Luis Potosi. 

  • Baja California, widespread throughout the state, continuing into northern and western coastal Baja California Sur. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Honduras, in northern coastal regions, as well as eastern portions of the country, near the Rio Platano Biosphere Reserve.  

  • Nicaragua, in regions east of Lake Cocibolca. These anomalies continue south into regions along the northern border of Costa Rica. 

  • Panama, with mostly severe surpluses occurring in western and central regions of the country. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through May 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will occur in much of northwestern Sonora. These deficits will continue along Mexico’s western coast, spreading into western coastal Jalisco. Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in portions of Guerrero and Oaxaca. In Central America, severe to exceptional surplus will be present in much of the region, with the most intense anomalies occurring in central Honduras, northeastern and southern Nicaragua, and southern coastal regions of Panama. 

From June through August 2025, surpluses in southern Mexico and Central America are expected to resolve, though some portions of western coastal Mexico, northeastern Guatemala, Belize, eastern Honduras, and southeastern Nicaragua can expect moderate to severe surpluses. The Mexican states of Baja California, Baja California Sur, Sonora, and San Luis Potosi will experience pockets of exceptional deficits. 

The forecast for the final months – September through November 2025 – indicates that surpluses in Mexico and Central America will further dissipate, with near-normal conditions covering much of the area. Pockets of moderate to severe deficits may occur in central Mexico, Honduras, and Nicaragua. 

IMPACTS
On March 13th, Tijuana experienced destructive rainfall, leading to landslides, flooding, and destruction of infrastructure. At least four power poles collapsed, causing power outages in many neighborhoods. One power pole fell on a man, sending him to the hospital. Clogged storm drains in the city worsened the flooding, as well as contributed to the development of two massive sinkholes. 

Mexico's federal government recently announced 17 major water infrastructure projects as part of President Claudia Sheinbaum’s National Water Plan. These projects aim to address the country’s growing issue of water scarcity, as it continues to operate under the potential threat of a “day zero,” or the day when water supplies become irreversibly scarce. The proposed projects include a desalination plant in Baja California, a water storage project in Mexico City, flood prevention in Tabasco, and new reservoirs in Sonora, with a total investment of approximately US $6.07 billion. 

Recent research found that drought is affecting the tequila bat population in Mexico. As climate change and urbanization disrupts flowering cycles for the agave plant, the bats’ primary source of food, instead they consume alternative foods, such as insects and sugar water. Experts say the adaptability of the bats’ diet is good news in some ways. “I think they are taking advantage of anthropogenic resources like water troughs and hummingbird feeders,” said The Wildlife Society member Mallory Davies.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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