United States: Exceptional deficits spread in SW states

19 March 2025

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending in November 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will continue in many southwestern states, as well as portions of northern, southern, and eastern states. Surpluses in Alaska are expected to lessen in intensity, but remain in northern and central portions of the state.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

Southern California, widespread throughout the region. These deficits spread further into central to southern Nevada, most of Arizona, and northwestern New Mexico. Areas along the southern border of Utah, as well as regions south of the Great Salt Lake, will also observe exceptional deficits.
Central Wyoming, spread throughout areas near Natrona County. These anomalies continue into western Nebraska, near the city of Scottsbluff.
Much of north-central Minnesota, in most areas surrounding the Leech Lake Reservation. Anomalies are also present in pockets of northeastern North Dakota, western Montana, and northern Washington.
Central Texas, throughout areas near the Llano Basin. Louisiana is also expected to observe deficits in most northern and eastern portions of the region.
North and South Carolina, in areas along the coasts of both states.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in:

Southern Florida, in southern coastal regions of the state.
Alaska, with the most intense anomalies occurring in central and northern portions of the state.
Eastern Oregon, near the Malheur National Forest.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through May 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will occur throughout regions of numerous southwestern states, including southern Nevada, Arizona, western to central New Mexico, Utah, and western Colorado. Central to northern Texas and regions along the border of Louisiana and Mississippi are expected to observe extreme to exceptional deficits. Western to central Nebraska is expected to observe severe to extreme deficits. North-central Minnesota is expected to experience exceptional deficits, as will coastal regions of North and South Carolina. Moderate to severe surplus is anticipated in central to northern Alaska, western to southwestern Oregon, east-central Washington, southern Florida, and north-central New York.

From June through August 2025, widespread exceptional deficits in southwestern states are expected to resolve, though some regions of northern and southern California, southern Utah, central New Mexico, east-central Wyoming, and Arizona are expected to observe persisting deficits. Severe to exceptional deficits are also anticipated in northern Washington, northwestern Montana, north-central Minnesota, northern Texas, and east-central Kansas. Severe deficits are anticipated in Louisiana, Arkansas, and coastal regions of North and South Carolina. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected to continue in east-central Washington, east-central Oregon, and central to northern Alaska.

The forecast for the final months – September through November 2025 – indicates that exceptional deficits will dissipate from southwestern states. Some regions of northern Washington, northwestern Montana, and coastal regions of northeastern states will observe severe to extreme deficits. Moderate to severe surpluses will continue in central and northern Alaska, southeastern Oregon, and eastern Washington.

IMPACTS
Following federal staffing cuts to the USDA, New Mexico faces a heightened risk of wildfires as severe drought, low snowpack, and dry vegetation affect the area. As conditions worsen fire risk, the cuts could potentially place one-third of the state without dispatchers to monitor for emerging fires, as well as fewer firefighters to respond if they grow out of control. According to a recent Congressional testimony, 75% of the 3,400 cut employees had undergone wildfire-fighting training.

The devastating wildfires which occurred in California earlier this year have been attributed by climate scientists as “wet-to-dry whiplash,” a phenomenon that is expected to increase in frequency due to climate change. “It’s a classic example of wet to dry whiplash,” says Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles. “With climate change, it’s not just that we’re seeing things get drier and drier. There’s also a trend toward more variability, with wider swings between wet and dry,” Swain says.

A 2024 survey revealed that demand for flood insurance is rising in the U.S. as severe weather events become more frequent. The survey found that 61.4% of American consumers found coverage to be either “desirable” or “very desirable.” The increase in demand indicates that insurers willing to offer it will be able to increase retention and penetration rates. Beyond the U.S., other countries observing a surge in demand for flood insurance include South Africa and China, with 84.4% and 77.7% of individuals surveyed expressing interest, respectively.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags