Africa: Surpluses along the Sahel to continue

18 March 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in November 2025 indicates that widespread deficits in Africa will resolve in some areas, but remain present in northwestern and central portions of the continent. Severe to exceptional surpluses along the Sahel are expected to endure, as will surpluses in southern African countries.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

Algeria, appearing in north-central areas near El Menia province, continuing southwest into northern Mali. These deficits continue west into portions of north-central Mauritania and into coastal areas of Morocco and Western Sahara.
Libya, near the city of Sabha and within northern and southern regions of the Al Wahat District. These deficits spread further south into northern Niger and northwestern Chad, as well as further east into northwestern Egypt.
Sierra Leone, Liberia, and southern regions of Ivory Coast. These anomalies continue along coastal regions bordering the Gulf of Guinea, spreading into southern coastal Nigeria.
Central to southern Cameroon, in areas near the city of Yaounde. These deficits continue east, spreading throughout northern Republic of the Congo and in central, northern, and southeastern Democratic Republic of Congo.
Tanzania, in regions south of Lake Victoria and in areas along its southern border. Spreading south, these deficits continue into northern Mozambique and eastern and northern Zambia. Pockets of exceptional deficits are also anticipated in western, southeastern, and eastern coastal regions of Madagascar.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in:

Western Mali, widespread throughout much of the region. These surpluses continue into the majority of western to eastern Burkina Faso and into regions along the border of southern Niger and northern Nigeria.
Chad, covering central to southern areas of the country. Surpluses are also expected in the northwest, in the Tibesti Ouest.
Sudan, with extreme to exceptional surpluses covering southwestern and southern portions of the country. These surpluses also manifest in northern Ethiopia, continuing north into Eritrea.
Northwestern Angola, in the Zaire Province.
Botswana, widespread throughout the country, continuing into western and southern Zimbabwe, as well as northeastern South Africa. Regions along the southern coast of Madagascar can expect severe to extreme surpluses.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through May 2025 indicates that severe to exceptional surpluses will endure along the Sahel, as well as in Botswana, Zimbabwe, and northeastern South Africa. Southwestern coastal regions of Madagascar will observe severe to extreme surpluses. Severe to extreme deficits are anticipated in northeastern Niger, southeastern Libya, and southwestern Egypt. Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in much of the Democratic Republic of Congo, southwestern Nigeria, and western regions of Tanzania. Regions along the southern border of Tanzania and northern border of Mozambique should anticipate pockets of extreme to exceptional deficit.

From June through August 2025, surpluses along the Sahel will continue, spreading further into southern Sudan, South Sudan, northern Ethiopia, and Eritrea. Further south, severe to exceptional surpluses in Botswana, northeastern South Africa, and southwestern Zimbabwe will remain. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in coastal regions bordering the Gulf of Guinea, as well as northern Mali, central Algeria, and central Libya. Extreme to exceptional deficits are anticipated in central Democratic Republic of Congo and northern Mozambique. Severe deficits are expected in northern Gabon, eastern Zambia, and western and southern Tanzania.

The forecast for the final months – September through November 2025 – surpluses along the Sahel will remain, as well as surpluses in Botswana, Zimbabwe, and northeastern South Africa. Exceptional deficits may continue along the Gulf of Guinea, as well as eastern Mauritania, west-central Algeria, and central Libya. Northern Mozambique eastern Zambia may also observe severe to exceptional deficits.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The World Food Programme (WFP) will shut down its office in southern Africa following the U.S.’s foreign aid budget cuts. The closure follows a severe drought in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zimbabwe, which has weakened food security in both countries. The WFP warns of severe disruptions to distribution as over 507,000 metric tons of food aid, valued at $340 million, is affected. Half of the World Food Programme’s budget was funded by the U.S.

Severe drought has put immense financial strain on Zesco, Zambia’s electricity utility. As the country continues to experience dry conditions, Zesco is forced to spend more on expensive power imports and thermal generation while taking losses from a reduction of exports. Due to the crisis, pushes are being made for reform in tariff structures and marketing policies, though losses continue to increase at an alarming rate.

Flash floods in the South African town of Lamontville caused five deaths after severe weather dropped over 4.5 inches of rain in one day. The fatalities were reportedly three children and two men. The flooding, which affected the KwaZulu-Natal province, caused widespread damage and closed main transportation routes. Officials warn that risk of flooding remains high, prompting residents in low areas to seek higher ground.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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