Canada: Deficits in Prairie provinces to endure

17 March 2025

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast for the 12-month period ending in November 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits in the Prairie Provinces will lessen in size, but still remain in several provinces. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in portions of the northern provinces.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in:

Northeastern British Columbia, in pockets within the Northern Rockies region, continuing into northern and northwestern Alberta.
Central Saskatchewan, across the Boreal Plain region.
Central Manitoba, in areas north of Lake Winnipeg. West-central and northern Ontario will also observe deficits, primarily in western areas of the Kenora District and in areas along the coast of the Hudson Bay.
Nova Scotia, widespread throughout the province.
Northwest Territories, in areas south of Great Bear Lake, as well as in the western regions of the Kitikmeot region in Nunavut.

Severe to extreme surpluses are anticipated in:

Nunavut, in northern areas of the Kivalliq region.
Northwest Territories, in areas east of Great Slave Lake.
Northern Saskatchewan, east of Lake Athabasca.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through May 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will continue throughout British Columbia’s Northern Rockies region, northwestern Alberta, central Saskatchewan, northern coastal Ontario, and regions south of Great Bear Lake. Severe to extreme deficits will occur in southwestern Manitoba, as well as in areas northeast of Lake Winnipeg. Extreme to exceptional surplus is expected to continue in eastern coastal areas of Nunavut, Southampton Island, and areas along the northern coast of Baffin Island.

From June through August 2025, exceptional deficits are expected to continue in northeastern British Columbia, northwestern Alberta, and western to central Saskatchewan. Exceptional deficits are also expected in regions west of Great Bear Lake and in western Nunavut. Severe to extreme deficits are anticipated in southern British Columbia, as well as in Manitoba, in areas northeast of Lake Winnipeg. In Quebec, severe to extreme deficits will emerge in central portions of the Baie-d'Hudson region. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected to continue in northern and central Nunavut.

The forecast for the final months – September through November 2025 – indicates that severe to extreme deficits will remain in portions of northeastern and southern British Columbia, central Alberta, and western Nunavut. Severe to exceptional surplus may persist in northern and central areas of Nunavut.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The World Food Programme (WFP) will shut down its office in southern Africa following the U.S.’s foreign aid budget cuts. The closure follows a severe drought in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zimbabwe, which has weakened food security in both countries. The WFP warns of severe disruptions to distribution as over 507,000 metric tons of food aid, valued at $340 million, is affected. Half of the World Food Programme’s budget was funded by the U.S.

Severe drought has put immense financial strain on Zesco, Zambia’s electricity utility. As the country continues to experience dry conditions, Zesco is forced to spend more on expensive power imports and thermal generation while taking losses from a reduction of exports. Due to the crisis, pushes are being made for reform in tariff structures and marketing policies, though losses continue to increase at an alarming rate.

Flash floods in the South African town of Lamontville caused five deaths after severe weather dropped over 4.5 inches of rain in one day. The fatalities were reportedly three children and two men. The flooding, which affected the KwaZulu-Natal province, caused widespread damage and closed main transportation routes. Officials warn that risk of flooding remains high, prompting residents in low areas to seek higher ground.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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