The 12-month forecast anticipates deficits to cover much of the continent, with small pockets of surpluses appearing in central and southeastern Africa.

The forecast through May 2023 predicts that a few areas of exceptional anomalies in northern Africa are expected to subside into mild to moderate deficits, though continuing in Egypt and Libya. Exceptional deficits in the Horn of Africa are expected to become exceptional surpluses. Much of the southern Sahel can expect intense surpluses to persist.

Africa’s forecast predicts that a few areas of exceptional anomalies in northern Africa are expected to subside into mild to moderate deficits through April 2023. Exceptional deficits in the Horn of Africa are expected to become transitional conditions.

The forecast through March 2023 expects Africa to experience intense surpluses throughout the southern Sahel, which continue throughout Burkina Faso, southern Sudan, and Chad.

The forecast indicates surpluses in a band along the southern edge of the Sahel through February 2023 or longer. Anomalies will be especially widespread and intense in Chad.