Papua New Guinea and Papua, Indonesia: Widespread deficit impacts through end of 2015

Composite water anomaly index map for Papua New Guinea and Papua (July-December 2015).

Composite water anomaly index map for Papua New Guinea and Papua (July-December 2015).

WSIM is forecasting substantial deficits along the northern coast of Papua New Guinea and the Indonesian province of Papua from July through Sep 2015, with much of the island experiencing less intense but still unusual deficits through Nov 2015.  The impact of these deficits will be felt at least through the end of the year, as depicted in the figure.  

This blog post presents results from our April “WSIM Global Water Monitor and Forecast” report. This report is based on observed temperature and precipitation through March 2015 and an ensemble of 28 temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by NOAA's CFSv2 the last week of March 2015.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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